By midday, over a third of voters had cast their ballot in a critical election that polls suggest will see the far-right frontrunner Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) come first in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany.
The turnout of 34.7%, according to provisional data from the regional election authorities, reflects intense interest in an election that has seen an insurgent AfD spark alarm and protests from political opponents and self-styled pro-democracy activists.
Only 22.4% had voted by this point in 2021, when citizens of what used to be part of Communist East Germany last elected their regional parliament.
An outright victory for the insurgent nationalist party would pave the way for an AfD minister-president to lead one of Germany’s federal states. But the latest polling ahead of the regional election put lead candidate Ullrich Siegmund at just over 40%.
While the far-right frontrunner AfD appeared unlikely to win an outright majority, there was considerable uncertainty as to what kind of alliance might keep them out of power as Saxony-Anhalt went out to vote on Sunday.
Tension
Siegmund was cheered by supporters as he arrived at his polling station on a Simson moped. Schulze was accompanied by his wife Kati as he turned out to cast his vote.
Police in Magdeburg said they were well prepared for election day. Authorities had warned ahead of the vote about the possibility of disturbances in the evening as the results become clear.
Smaller left-wing groups travelled to Saxony-Anhalt from the federal capital Berlin for the election, while thousands of supporters of football club FC Magdeburg headed to Berlin on Sunday morning for their team’s match against Hertha BSC.
They are expected to arrive back in the state capital late in the evening, by which time the election result is likely to have been established.
Uneasy alliance?
Incumbent CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze appears to have little chance of beating the AfD into second place. In the poorest state of the former East Germany the socialist Left Party looked set to take third place in the poll, while all others were battling to ensure they pass the 5% threshold to get into the regional parliament.
Before the election, Schulze ruled out having an AfD or Left Party minister sit at his cabinet table. His wording, however, deliberately left the door open to a minority government tolerated by the Left.
That prospect has angered many CDU supporters, who point to the Left Party’s roots as the successor to Socialist Unity Party that ruled Communist East Germany, and accuse the party of providing a political home to antisemites. In 2018, the CDU adopted a formal incompatibility resolution ruling out cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party.
There is a notable precedent, however. For almost two years, neighbouring Thuringia has been governed by CDU Minister-President Mario Voigt under precisely such a model: a minority government tolerated by the Left. In fact, this workaround was “invented” in Saxony-Anhalt in 1994 when the centre-left SPD formed a minority government tolerated by the then PDS, the predecessor of today’s Left Party.
The arrangement has since become known as the ‘Magdeburg Model’, named after the regional capital and seat of the state parliament. Whether the model is set to make a comeback will become clear in the hours and days after polls close at 6 p.m.
See the original by Björn Stritzel here.