Russia may have enough resources to continue its war against Ukraine through 2027 and 2028, while preparing intensified attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure during the coming autumn and winter, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief said.
Oleg Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) made the assessment in an interview with the state-run Ukrinform news agency.
“We do not rule out that Russia will have enough resources to wage war against Ukraine in 2027 and 2028,” he said.
Ivashchenko said Ukraine and its international partners must work together to restrict Russia’s access to the equipment and materials needed to sustain its military production.
Ivashchenko said sanctions must be effectively enforced, adding that Ukrainian intelligence knows which countries supply Russia with electronic components, machine tools, and specialized chemicals. He said numerous intermediary companies have emerged to deliver goods that are later used by Russia’s war machine.
The intelligence chief also said public dissatisfaction with the war was growing inside Russia, although it remained unclear whether it could develop into a significant protest movement.
According to Ivashchenko, more than 60% of Russians now oppose the war, a trend he attributed to worsening economic conditions and heavy battlefield losses. Russia’s contract recruitment model had largely exhausted itself, with regional governments increasingly unable to finance the payments offered to new recruits.
Ivashchenko has estimated that Russian forces lose an average of 1,200 to 1,400 personnel a day, with the figure sometimes rising to 1,500, including soldiers killed or seriously wounded.
Russia preparing combined winter attacks
Ivashchenko also warned that Russia was preparing combined attacks involving ballistic and cruise missiles, jet-powered Shahed drones, and new loitering munitions.
He said Ukrainian intelligence had information about the facilities Russia intended to target, the weapons it planned to use, and the approximate timing of potential strikes.
“I can’t please you and I can’t mislead people. As the head of intelligence, I have to speak objectively. People have to understand this, and our country has to prepare for this.”
According to him, Russia’s primary objective is to reduce Ukraine’s military potential and long-range strike capabilities. Russian forces are targeting ammunition storage sites and attempting to destroy Ukrainian defense production facilities, he said.
Energy facilities and thermal power plants are expected to become increasingly frequent targets as colder weather approaches, Ivashchenko said.
He also reported a significant increase in the use of jet-powered Shahed-type drones. Russia could deploy groups numbering 120, 300, or even 500 drones in a single day, while simultaneously launching ballistic and cruise missiles.
Ivashchenko said Russia was also introducing new loitering munitions that combine features of jet-powered drones and cruise missiles. He identified the weapons as the Banderol and Dan-T, saying they could travel at speeds of 500 to 700 kilometers per hour (about 310 to 435 mph), and be launched from either air or ground platforms.
The weapons use artificial intelligence and machine vision to improve accuracy and operate with greater autonomy, making them less dependent on external guidance and more difficult to counter.
He said their warheads weigh more than 130 kilograms (286 pounds), significantly heavier than those carried by Shahed or Geran-type drones, which he put at between 50 and 90 kilograms (110 and 198 pounds).
Ballistic missiles, particularly Iskander and Zircon missiles, remain among the most difficult targets for Ukrainian air defenses to intercept, Ivashchenko said. Countering them requires advanced missile defense systems and an adequate supply of interceptor missiles.
“The enemy is adapting. And our task is to adapt faster.”
Ivashchenko said military intelligence was working directly with Ukraine’s Air Force by providing information about potential threats. He added that securing sufficient numbers of PAC-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems remained a priority for President Volodymyr Zelensky, his office, Ukrainian diplomats, and intelligence officials.