Russia plans to conduct final tests of a new, currently unnamed ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers (500 miles) by the end of 2026 and could attack western Ukraine as trials of the system.
Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) delivered the assessment during a recent meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council.
“According to our estimates, Russia plans to conduct final tests of a new type of ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers by the end of this year,” Skibitsky said.
Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia could attempt to strike targets in western Ukraine during as part of its testing regime.
Skibitsky said Russia was increasing the intensity of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine in an effort to trigger a social and economic crisis. Moscow is also seeking to increase its production of ballistic missiles and extend their range, he said.
Skibitsky urged Ukraine’s partners to strengthen sanctions against Russia and restrict its access to foreign components used in the production of long-range weapons.
Intelligence says Russian losses exceeded recruitment
Skibitsky also said Russia lost about 43,000 military personnel in August while recruiting around 39,000 people into its armed forces.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian General Staff believes intensified mobilization is the only way Moscow can achieve its main military objectives.
“Russia has not abandoned its strategic goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood and is waging a war of attrition despite heavy losses,” Skibitsky said.
He said those objectives included the complete occupation of Ukraine’s Donbas region and attempts to secure the strategic initiative on the battlefield.
Russia intends to mobilize about 600,000 people during 2026 and 2027, with half of that number expected to be recruited by the end of this year, according to HUR’s assessment.
Belarus could support hybrid operations
Skibitsky said Russia’s broader plans also included attempts to blockade the Black Sea and draw Belarus into the war against Ukraine alongside hybrid operations targeting NATO.
However, Ukrainian intelligence has not detected signs that Belarus is currently preparing offensive military formations on its territory, he said.
“At present, we do not see real indicators of preparations for strike groups on Belarusian territory, but we remember January and February 2022,” Skibitsky said.
He identified domestic political risks, limited military capabilities and possible economic problems as the primary factors discouraging Belarus from directly entering the war.
However, HUR considers it likely that Belarus will continue supporting Russian hybrid activities, including allowing its territory to be used to increase pressure along NATO’s borders and to intensify information and psychological operations.
Skibitsky said Russia remained a threat to both Ukraine and Europe. He thanked partner countries for their support and again called for stronger sanctions to deprive Moscow of foreign components used in weapons targeting Ukraine.