Despite recent public pronouncements by Russian President Vladimir Putin that rumors of a fresh troop mobilization were ‘complete nonsense’ and that ‘there is no scenario today that would require mobilization’ recent events suggest the process may have already begun.
Critics point out that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said that reports of a new mobilization were ‘fake stories’ – he had made similar denials in May 2022, only four months before the last mass mobilization began.
According to an article in Deutsche Welle’s Russian service (DW), large numbers, which some estimates put as tens of thousands, are increasingly being summoned to military enlistment offices to verify, clarify and update their military registration records.
Having done this they find that their military ID cards have been modified to include a ‘mobilization order’ that requires them to report to a specific collection point in the event of mobilization,
Such orders were issued prior to the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the previous mass mobilization in the autumn of the same year, but the current level of summonses is unprecedented. DW quotes the Russian internet search engine Yandex Wordstat which has seen a 800% upsurge in the number of searches for ‘mobilization order’.
A Russian lawyer, Artem Klyga, is quoted in the article noting that a summons to an enlistment office to clarify data does not necessarily mean the individual will be mobilized but it will be used to rapidly bring them in once the order is given. He adds that officials have been instructed to prepare the system for any decision Putin makes.
Putin’s assurances are not shared by many of those summoned particularly after reports in June told of men reporting to military enlistment offices being taken and pressured into signing military contracts in Russia’s Penza region. According to local reports many were transported to military units where they were held before being sent to the front. Some see this as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for what is to follow.
Western estimates, including those of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), suggests that Russia is losing more than 40,000 men killed and wounded at the front compared with around 35,000 volunteers being recruited every month. ISW argues that this gap cannot be supported indefinitely and can only be remedied by ‘mobilization in some form’.
Western intelligence agencies say they are also seeing the signs of preparations for mass conscription in a number of regions that could be a precursor to establish training grounds, feed and arm new recruits. In late July, advertisements began to appear offering vacancies in ‘mobilization preparedness’ and ‘military registration’.
As Politico reported in late August concern among young Russians was such that more than 110,000 had fled in the previous week across the Upper Lars checkpoint between Russia and Georgia, ostensibly for summer holidays, — a loophole that has since been closed off.
DW also pointed out that the 2022 decree on partial mobilization in Russia has never been formally revoked and technically remains in force – another cause for disquiet among those eligible for call up.
The combination of summonses, changes to the military registration systems and aggressive recruitment efforts help explain why Putin’s denials have failed to put the rumors to the rest.