In late September, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a body of scientists, released a report that said global temperatures will continue to rise.
As one of Ukraine’s leading sectors, agriculture has attracted foreign
investors in recent years. More than $805 million of foreign money has been invested in Ukraine’s agricultural
industry so far. This year direct foreign investment in agriculture reached $76.6
million, according to the State Statistics Service.
While investments keep flowing in, scientists warn of climate risks and the
potential losses that Ukraine’s farmers face.
Maria Storchylo, program coordinator on climate change at the Ukrainian
National Ecological Center, has a pessimistic view of what is to come.
“Several extreme events such as floods or off-season frosts are likely
to become more frequent in Ukraine due to warmer temperatures and higher intensity
of rainfall,” Storchylo said. “Such weather instability may push farmers to
change sowing campaign and the crops could be affected by new grain pests.”
However, some adjustments to Ukraine’s economy to mitigate climate risks
have been done. Ukraine has started preparing a national climate change
adaptation plan, according to a State Environmental Investment Agency of
Ukraine report. It will focus on
developing effective agricultural machinery, which burns fewer lubricants, and
the treatment of agricultural waste to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Experts believe agricultural companies have some 5-10 years to find new
practices and adapt their businesses. However, the situation requires
monitoring.
While it may be possible to predict particular events with some
probability, it is also likely that some regions will suffer from unusual
weather conditions, said Tetyana Adamenko, who heads the agri-meteorological
department at the Hydrometeorological Center.
“Climate changes may transform the operation territory for agribusiness.
For instance, farmers in central Ukraine and Volyn, Chernihiv, Kyiv oblasts
should be ready for dryness to move into this region,” Adamenko predicts.
On the flipside, some producers may benefit.
“Climate challenges may be good for warm-weather crop producers,”
Adamenko said, pointing that corn, sunflower and soybean harvests may keep
growing. For instance, the sunflower harvest progressed in recent years, as
about 8.3 million tons of sunflower oil was produced in 2012, compared to 6.7
million tons in 2010, according to the State Statistics Service.
Corn production may become advantageous since farmers could grow it in western
and northern parts of Ukraine. Besides, winter wheat offers Ukrainian producers
a few advantages, Adamenko said, adding that higher temperatures may boost the winter
wheat harvest substantially.
“In the 1990’s Ukraine was losing around 20 percent of winter wheat harvest,
while now the number are usually not higher than 5-8 percent,” Adamenko adds.
Volodymyr Lapa, who heads the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, said climate
change is especially relevant for southern and eastern parts of Ukraine,
including Kherson,
Mykolaiyv and Crimea where there is minimal rainfall and droughts occur.
Others have
to deal with the problems in their own way. Corn producers already use drip irrigation. “It takes Hr 4,000-5,000 to implement
the technology, and gives a chance to boost the harvest from 3 tons per hectare
to 10-12 tons,” Lapa notes.
Seed
companies, which introduce short-rain crops and those with more efficient water
utilization could benefit as well.
Mykolaiv-based Nibulon, one of the largest grain traders and exporters
of oilseed in Ukraine, has already reexamined their operation plans due to
climate changing.
“We have to cut barley production as it appears to be sensitive to
warmer temperatures and shift to some drought tolerant crops like sorghum and
chickpeas in recent years,” said Konstyantyn Khmelnytskiy, head of production
at Nibulon.
Kyiv Post staff writer Olena Goncharova can be
reached at [email protected]
