You're reading: Euro 2012 blog: Revisiting the Kyiv Post’s predictions

Exactly two weeks ago, the Kyiv Post prognosticators felt so confident. Hope is always the prevailing emotion at the beginning of a major tournament. But, alas, their dreams of being considered “experts” were dashed from the moment Greece upset Russia.

In the original predictions page, Mark Rachkevych, James Marson and
Matt Pentz billed themselves as sports enthusiasts who like to think they know
what they’re talking about. They chose the winners based on detailed knowledge
of players and teams. Brian Bonner, the Kyiv Post’s chief editor, picked his
winners based on “gut feeling” and economic performance.

Neither strategy
has fared all that well, though some (Mark) have escaped with more dignity
intact than others (Matt).

Group A

James,
Mark, Matt – Russia, Poland; Brian –
Poland, Czech Republic

Ugh, what a
disaster. The fact that the only person to get even one team correct did so because they were one of “the two strongest
economies among European Union nations in the group” just underlines the
failure of the other three. In fairness, this was the prevailing public opinion
heading into … forget it, there is no excusing this one. Let’s just move on.

Group B

James,
Mark, Matt, Brian – Germany, Netherlands

On the one
hand, the selection of Germany came off perfectly, as the side went
three-for-three. On the other hand, the Netherlands love was an insight into
the dangers of group think, as everyone was seduced by a Dutch team that didn’t
register a single point. It wouldn’t be so bad had James not picked the
Netherlands to reach the semifinals and Mark and Matt to win it all. Brain’s
strategy of blind ignorance is looking better and better.

Group C

James – Spain, Croatia; Mark, Brian – Spain, Italy; Matt: Spain, Ireland

We’re
slowly lurching from embarrassment to respectability. Mark and Brian became our
first selectors to correctly identify both the group winners and runners-up,
while James’ dark horse choice of Croatia was one goal away from coming off. As
for Matt, well, two straight runners-up picks that couldn’t scrape together a
single point speaks for itself.

Group D

James – France, Ukraine; Mark: France, England; Matt: France, Sweden; Brian: Ukraine, Sweden

The most
open group drew the widest variety of selections. Brian paid the price for
allowing his heart to override his cool, economically sound reasoning, and
James was similarly punished for surrendering his emotions. Mark pulled away
from the pack with his second straight perfect group, while Matt was only
spared his third, zero-for-three selection in a row by Sweden’s shock upset of
France in the finale.

Group Stage standings (one point for each
correct selection):

1. Mark: 5

2. Brian: 4

T-3. James,
Matt: 3

Can Mark
maintain his lead despite having his title pick already out? Will James and
Matt regain any bit of their lost credibility? Could basing your selections on
economic performance really be the best way to go about it?

The race
for first in the Kyiv Post selection poll may be more thrilling than the
tournament itself, especially now that Ukraine is out.