Oct. 18 is the last day when polls can be published, meaning today is the last chance to look back at the recent trends evidenced by the polling data.
So far, four parties look like they will get elected into the 450-seat
Verkhovna Rada on Oct. 28. The ruling Party of Regions, led by Prime Minister
Mykola Azarov, is in first place. Most polls put the party at 22-23 percent of
support from those who plan to vote.
The Democratic Initiatives poll shows most of the party’s supporters are
from southern (40.7 percent) and eastern (36.1 percent) Ukraine. However,
sociologists note that the party has lost its popularity over the last month
and went from 26 to 23 percent, according to the Rating sociological
service.
The two main opposition parties are neck-to-neck, competing for the
title of the country’s second most popular party.
UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance
for Reforms) Party, led by heavyweight boxing world champion Vitali
Klitschko, is polling at 14.7-17.9 percent.
According to the Democratic Initiatives poll most of Klitschko’s voters
live in western and central Ukraine.
The United Opposition, a bloc of eight parties led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk
and imprioned ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, is supported by 15.6 – 16.5
percent of those who plan to participate in the elections. Just as in the case
of UDAR, most of United Opposition’s voters are from western and central
Ukraine.
The Communist Party is polling at between 9.2 percent and 12.8 percent
of votes. Most of their supporters hail from eastern and southern Ukraine. The
party has had a good month, with support growing from 10 to 13 percent over the
past month, according to the Rating sociological group.
With 4.6-6 percent of support, the nationalist Svoboda Part is on the
brink of the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament via the
proportional system. Most Svoboda voters live in the western part of the
country.
Sociologists estimate that 60 percent of Ukrainians will participate in
the Oct. 28 elections. Over 70 percent of them have already decided who they
are going to vote for.
Expressions of support, however, do not directly translate into seats,
half of which will be picked through single-mandate districts. While some
arrangements between the parties have been made, many still feature multiple
opposition candidates or Party of Regions candidates posing as independents.
According to Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta think tank, the
various parties can expect following final number of seats: Party of Regions
(180-215), United Opposition (60-80), UDAR (55-70), Communists (30-40) and Svoboda
(20-23).
The political expert noted there should also be 50-80 at least nominally
independent candidates, though many of these are expected to join a ruling
coalition with the Party of Regions afterward.
Kyiv Post staff writer Svitlana Tuchynska can be
reached at [email protected]
