He said the scenarios, which have been prepared over a period of several months, will be presented on the first day of the forum. They are not an attempt at forecasting, they identify three uncertainties, the resolution of which will determine Russia’s future path.
These uncertainties include the situation on global commodity markets, the pace of institutional reform in the country and the degree of regional integration or differentiation, Dvorkovich said.
Depending on these factors, three scenarios are possible: a scenario with low commodity prices; high prices but low level of institutional reform; and a scenario of increased regional differentiation. All of these scenarios are relatively negative, Dvorkovich said.