You're reading: Pollster: Russian voter apathy to help Putin

Widespread apathy and a lack of alternatives may help Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his party secure convincing wins in December parliamentary elections and a March presidential vote, Russia's leading independent pollster said.

The September announcement that Putin plans to trade roles with President Dmitry Medvedev and return to the top office next year has dampened hopes of reform and reinforced many Russians’ feelings of disenfranchisement.

In surveys this month, leading polling agency Levada Centre found that 24 percent of Russians believe the job swap deal was done behind the people’s backs and 85 percent believe they have no say in political life.

That sense of resignation is likely to play into the hands of Putin’s United Russia party, which is seeking to retain its two-thirds majority in the State Duma lower parliament house in a Dec. 4 election, Levada head Lev Gudkov told Reuters in an interview.

"The authorities are betting on a low turnout," Gudkov said.

He said many critics of United Russia or Putin, convinced that the outcome is predetermined and dismayed by the absence of a political force they find attractive, will not vote.

By contrast, United Russia — which dominates regional and local governments nationwide — can harness higher turnout among groups of voters that depend heavily on the state for their livelihood, such as soldiers, students and government workers.

"That implies that in the final result the proportion of United Russia supporters (voting) will be higher," Gudkov said.

He said he expects the total turnout will be boosted — in United Russia’s favour — through falsifications such as ballot-stuffing, particularly in tightly controlled regions such as the North Caucasus, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan as well as in Moscow.

Levada has estimated that 12 percent of the ballots in Moscow were falsified in the last State Duma election, in 2007.

Its polls indicate turnout in the parliamentary election will be about 59 percent, down from 63.8 percent in 2007.

Gudkov said that United Russia, backed by 59 percent of voters in a Levada Centre poll this month, could still secure a two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution.

Because of the way State Duma seats are distributed, its chances will be greater if turnout among its critics is low and only three parties — instead of the four now in the State Duma — win the 7 percent required to secure seats.

LOCAL OUTBURSTS

The only other parties that appear assured of clearing that threshold are the Communists and the LDPR. The most recent Levada poll put the Just Russia party on the edge, and if it falls short United Russia’s share of seats will increase.

Official turnout was 69.7 percent in the 2008 presidential election, which Medvedev won easily after Putin, president since 2000 and facing a constitutional bar on a third straight term, tapped him as chosen successor.

Gudkov said that Putin, Russia’s most popular politician with a 66 percent approval rating in Levada’s most recent poll, is set to win the presidency in the first round of voting in March, avoiding a run-off by receiving more than 50 percent.

"The basis of his popularity is the hope that the economic growth of the pre-crisis years will resume and the lack of an alternative," said Gudkov, referring to the oil-fuelled resurgence Russia experienced during his 2000-2008 presidency.

He said that rising disappointment with the authorities in recent months could lead to isolated protests but was unlikely to bring large-scale upheaval soon.

"Local outbursts are possible but they will not be supported throughout the country unless there is a significant fall in living standards," he said. "The negative trends can resonate by 2016-2017, ahead of the next election."