You're reading: Russian economy minister says Brexit priced into markets, wouldn’t send oil, ruble, plummeting, but remain vote more likely

A vote for Britain to leave the European Union would not significantly influence the price of oil and, in turn, the ruble rate, but a vote to remain in the EU is more likely, Russian Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said.

“I believe that in general, the markets have all already factored in volatility which was there, risks are basically factored in. Therefore I do not see any kind of sharp fall in the oil and ruble,” Ulyukayev told journalists on June 23.

However, he said that it was difficult to accurately predict what kind of consequences there would be from Brexit if it took place.

“Nobody will tell you definitely. It is impossible to predict. The process would drag on for many years. The European Union’s own representatives say it would take about two years – that is the negotiation process, in order to determine the framework and draft documents. There will be a transition period, it is natural,” Ulyukayev said.

“Secondly, there will be various forms of relations between the remaining 27 countries and the exiting country; some kind of association, agreements with individual countries and some more. It is very difficult to predict the final configuration of all that and many things will depend on it,” the Economic Development Minister said.

Because of this, Ulyukayev said a victory for the “remain” camp was more likely.

“The word ‘prediction’ is not suitable. It is guessing. My guess is that, by a small margin, the remain supporters will win,” the minister said.