Top ministers and managers in Ukraine’s fractious government gave radically difficult prognoses on the state of the country’s progress at a March 10 panel, showing deep divides in outlook and energy among some of the government’s most vaunted reformers.
The panel, held at Dragon Capital’s 12th
Annual Ukraine Investor Conference in Kyiv, featured Finance Minister Natalie
Jaresko, Infrastructure Minister Andriy Pivovarsky, Agriculture Minister
Oleksiy Pavlenko, Deputy Economy Minister Max Nefyodov, Deputy Presidential
Administration Head Oleksandr Danilyuk, and Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolev.
Jaresko and Pavlenko both presented optimistic
views of the country’s progress in reforms targeted at establishing a
sustainable budget and increasing agricultural exports. Pivovarsky, on the
other hand, when asked what his hopes were that parliament would pass
infrastructure-related legislation, replied: “I’m not confident at all.”
Kobolev spoke about his concern that “momentum
is being lost,” and complained of constant bickering among Ukraine’s political
elite.
“The war is not over, but we are fighting among
ourselves,” Kobolev said. “We lose a lot of energy and time to arguments, and
the arguments are often done in a way which is totally improper, without
considering objective facts, but by being subjective and emotional.”
Why no tranche?
Jaresko dodged pointed
questions over whether she would soon replace Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
“All of us seated here
are legitimate representatives of a very legitimate government that is working
every day,” Jaresko said.
“We’re serving the
government every day, and I think the speculation is what’s causing the (political)
crisis to some extent,” she added.
According to Jaresko, the
calls for the dismissal of the Yatsenyuk government, along with Abramovicius’s
resignation, derailed Ukraine’s chances of receiving a third, $1.7 billion loan
from the International Monetary Fund.
Ukraine received $6.7
billion from the IMF in 2015 as part of the four-year $17.5 billion loan
package.
“We had met the targets,
and we were in a position to get the tranche, but we hadn’t finalized the
document,” Jaresko said. “As we were finalizing that, the debate began in
parliament about the vote of no-confidence in the government.”
She then gestured to outgoing Economy Minister
Aivaras Abromavicius, who was sitting in the front row. Jaresko went on: “The
minister, a very fond friend of all of ours I think, resigned and made a very
strong statement about difficulties in governing.
“And then things started to change,” she said.
‘I think I just got myself fired’
Roughly halfway through the panel, the
audience was asked to vote on a question: how successfully has reform gone over
the past year?
Around 70 percent of the
voters thought progress had been made – but not enough.
Pivovarsky interrupted
the vote with his own formulation. The minister asked to divide progress in two
– how successful had the government been in economic progress, and how
successful had it been in establishing the rule of law?
“How would that change the voting pattern?” he
asked.
Most audience members
voted that the government had been successful in economic liberalization
reforms.
None voted that it had
been successful in establishing the rule of law or fighting corruption.
“I think I just got myself fired,” Pivovarsky
said.
Abromavicius takes the stage
At another panel during the conference,
Abromavicius spoke about his work in government as well as specific issues that
need fixing in Ukraine.
Noting that reform of the value-added tax had
so far gone successfully, Abromavicius bemoaned reports of ongoing corruption
in the tax service.
“How, in 2016, are there still bribes to be
paid on VAT?” he asked. “We must be the only country in the world discouraging
exports this way.”
Abromavicius also defended his decision to
resign, saying that it had sparked real change and discussion in government.
“The chances for a more technocratic
government have increased tremendously,” he said. “I personally believe you
need to change the prime minister.”
He went on to say that a replacement prime minister
would ideally have a good enough reputation to be able to attract and work with
foreign investors.
“Natalie Jaresko fits those qualifications,”
he said.
Asked if he would like to
return to government under a potentially new administration, Abromavicius
hinted that he would, though it would be unlikely to happen.
“I’ve burned some bridges,” he said. “But
miracles do happen.”
Kyiv Post staff writer Josh Kovensky can be reached at [email protected]
