With a week left to the April 6 referendum in the Netherlands on approval of Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the European Union, the “yes” and “no” camps are running neck-and-neck.
A recent poll commissioned by the Dutch Foreign Ministry found public opinion evenly split, Dutch newspaper AlgemeenDagblad reported on March 26.
Previous polls have put the “no” camp firmly in the lead, so the latest poll will encourage Dutch supporters of Ukraine, as well as the numerous Ukrainian artists, politicians and activists who have been campaigning for the “yes” side.
Activist Bogdan Globa, who is now in the Netherlands campaigning for a “yes” vote, isn’t very hopeful, however.
“Dutch opinion is divided 50-50,” Globa told the Kyiv Post on March 28. “But it’s more likely that the Dutch will say ‘no’ to Ukraine. Too many of them are still afraid of the war in the east of Ukraine. They also think Ukraine could be another Greece.”
To win over Dutch voters, Ukrainian activists and officials have organized several information campaigns, business forum, a cinema festival and even a bike ride in the Netherlands, which are to be held in late March and at the beginning of April.
The goals of the events are all the same: to show the Dutch that Ukraine is a modern, independent and promising state that deserves to be part of the European Union, organizers say.
“More than 40 percent of the Dutch will come to the voting stations on the referendum day,” Oleksandr Snidalov, a Ukrainian activist for the referendum initiative in the Netherlands, told the Kyiv Post on March 28.
The referendum result will only be considered valid if voter turnout is over 30 percent.
“So now our activists are busy as bees, making interviews, organizing meetings and informing the Dutch that Ukraine is a country of great people and opportunities,” Snidalov said.
However, he said the “no” campaigners are also active, and they have more presence on local TV and in the media.
According to Globa, the main arguments of the “no” camp are:
* The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is a huge step towards Ukrainian membership of the union. The Dutch don’t need to feed and support Ukrainians;
* There is no need for sanctions against Russia — the Netherlands need to trade with Russia;
* If the agreement is signed and approved, Europeans will take on responsibility for the war in the east of Ukraine.
The organizers of the “no” campaign are the social initiative GeenPeil, satirical website GeenStijl and the Euroskeptic and pro-Russian political parties PartijVoor de Vrijheid (the Party for Freedom) and SocialistischePartij (the Socialist Party).
However, the referendum is more about Dutch attitudes to the EU than to Ukraine, Van Rossem, journalist from GeenStijl told the Kyiv Post.
“We, as organizers, do not demonize, dislike nor hate Ukraine,” Rossem said.“We wanted to have a referendum to be able to discuss our own democratic deficits. The (EU-Ukraine) association agreement was one of the very few roads that could lead us there, so we took it.”
Nevertheless, Ukraine’s place in Europe, at least in the immediate term, could be at stake, so Ukrainian activists are busy campaigning for a “yes” vote.To raise public awareness of the issue, Bloc of Petro Poroshenko lawmaker Svitlana Zalishchuk and the Chesno civic activist Taras Shevchenko took part in a public discussion on March 30with Dutch supporters of Ukraine in the Netherlands –the Dutch politician Kees Verhoeven of the D66 political party and political analyst Tony Van der Togt.
The discussion was held in the Dutch city The Hague.
“The most ridiculous thing I’ve heard from anti-Ukrainian activists here is that the ratification of the EU-Ukraine agreement will lead to European soldiers being sent to the front in the Donbas,” Shevchenko said of one of the wilder rumors circulating in the Dutch media.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian film director Hanka Tretyak has shot 17 videos featuring short interviews with people who have lived both in Ukraine and the Netherlands. Tretyak’s videos will be shown in the Netherlands as a part of Like.U informational campaign.
“The Like.U initiative has a motto: ‘More in common. More to share,” said Oksana Gorbach, the director of StratcomUA production hub, which produced the videos.“Our main goal is to show that to the Dutch. We will use social media and agitation materials. Our diplomats promised to spread them during their meetings in Holland.”
StratcomUA specialists and the Ukrainian diaspora in Holland have created several information and entertainment websites for Dutch voters, such as http://likeu.org.ua/ and Oekraine-referendum.nl
As well as websites and public discussions, “yes” campaigners are using the cinema to bolster their cause — Ukrainian producer Dennis Ivanov opened the “Ukraine on Film: Way to Freedom” film festival on March 30.
“We decided to spotlight Ukraine with the most popular Ukrainian documentaries: Dzyga Vertov’s ‘Eleventh,’ Evgeny Afineevsky’s ‘Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom,’ and Chad Garcia’s ‘Russian Woodpecker,’” Ivanov said at a news conference on March 28.
Ukraine’s top officials are also pitching in: Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration DmytroShymkiv, and Deputy Economy Minister NataliiaMykolska attended the Ukraine-Netherlands Business Forum in the city Nootdorp on March 30.
At the event, the officials discussed the benefits of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement with Dutch businessmen and politicians.
But even as the date of the referendum draws closer, the consequences of a “no” vote are not any clearer.
According to Dutch law, a valid (more than 30 percent turnout) “no” vote will mean that the Dutch government has to “reconsider” the issue of the ratification of the EU-Ukraine agreement. That doesn’t mean the government is obliged to put the ratification of the agreement to the vote again, according to experts, but politicians will be under pressure to take public opinion into account, especially with elections coming up in the Netherlands.
And if the Dutch parliament blocks the full ratification of the treaty, that would hand a victory to Russia, and cause upheaval in Europe, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in an interview with Dutch daily newspaper Handelsblad in January.
“I don’t believe the Dutch will say no, because it would open the door to a big continental crisis,” Juncker said.
Kyiv Post staff writer Veronika Melkozerova can be reached at [email protected]
