You're reading: Ferguson: Ukraine could be a ‘footnote’ to the U.S.’s deal over Syria

Ukraine is set to be a “footnote” to a grand settlement between the United States and Russia over Syria, according to historian and author Niall Ferguson.

Ferguson, who was in Kyiv at the 2016 Yalta European Strategy
Conference, said in an interview with the Kyiv Post on Sept. 17 that Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to be angling for a “U.S.-Russia carveout”
which would see Bashar al-Assad remain in Syria. The other part of that agreement would be a deal over Ukraine that would grant
autonomy to the Russian-separatist controlled areas of Luhansk and
Donetsk oblast, along with recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.

“The initiative has been ceded to Russia, Putin is in a position
to determine the level of conflict, and ramped it up this summer in order to
pressure the United States in to going down the bilateral road that he is
attracted to,” Ferguson said.

Russia has repeatedly tried to cast ongoing tensions with the
United States and Europe as a product of Western expansion into Eastern Europe,
with a particular focus on the addition of the Baltic states to NATO.

But Ferguson dismisses the notion that the West overreached in
expanding eastward.

“The idea was not inherently flawed, though I think there were
specific mistakes made,” Ferguson said, adding that the West had made mistakes
since tensions with Russia rose after the Kremlin’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014. “It was a
mistake to go down a route by which Germany and France were negotiating with
Russia.”

Ferguson added that while German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s
“hostility” towards Putin had made her a reliable ally, elements in France and
the United Kingdom were often more interested in restoring business ties with
Russia than responding to Moscow’s behavior.

“We’re no longer discussing how to put pressure on the Russians,”
Ferguson said. “The question is now, can a deal be done that does not give
Putin all of what he wants?”

Ferguson criticized President Barack Obama’s administration for allowing Putin
to increase Russia’s ability to wield power around the globe.

Calling it “depressing,” Ferguson said that Putin had been able
to “insert himself into the Middle East and become the broker in Syria,” reasserting
Russian strength there in a way that has not been seen since the 1970s.

“Putin has really turned the geopolitical clock back to the 1950s
and 60s,” he said.

U.S. election looms for Ukraine

The upcoming U.S. presidential election has stoked fears in Kyiv
of a potential withdrawal of American support for Ukraine should Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump be elected.

Trump has recently called Putin a stronger leader than Obama, and has also suggested that the United States would not
honor its NATO obligation sto defend its Baltic allies should Russia attack.

“If you cast doubt on the integrity of NATO, you’re kind of
sending an invitation for the Kremlin to make trouble,” Ferguson said.

Ferguson added that it seemed unclear whether Trump understood
both the issues surrounding the Ukraine crisis and how the Russian government
intended to negotiate.

“The Russians have a far clearer sense of their geopolitical
options here, they know they’re much the weaker player, and yet they’ve been
able to parlay that weakness into a position of considerable strength,”
Ferguson said.

From that level of success, it would be difficult to expect Trump
to really triumph in any sort of global settlement over Syria and Ukraine,
Ferguson said.

“My worry is that if Trump tries to negotiate with Vladimir Putin
as if Putin is some sort of Russian real estate developer, he’s going to get
thoroughly screwed,” Ferguson said. “I worry that Trump’s negotiation would not
be a chapter from the Art of the Deal.”