Agreement on the need to remove Arseniy Yatsenyuk is a lot easier to come by than consensus on who should replace the unpopular prime minister.
But two names keep coming to the forefront of discussions for the post: Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko and Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Groysman.
Both dodge the question of whether they’ll take the job, however, and Yatsenyuk shows no signs of wanting to leave after surviving a no-confidence vote in parliament on Feb. 16. “Back me or sack me,” Yatsenyuk said in an interview with the Financial Times published on March 10.
Ukraine’s spiraling political crisis gained steam on Feb. 3, after Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius resigned, alleging corrupt officials close to President Petro Poroshenko were interfering in his work. Deputy Prosecutor General Vitaliy Kasko deepened the crisis by quitting on Feb. 15, alleging systemic corruption and obstruction of justice that he said Poroshenko is doing nothing to eliminate.
The departures of Abromavicius and Kasko came amid growing public anger over the lack of progress in achieving the goals of the EuroMaidan Revolution that toppled President Viktor Yanukovych – a genuine fight against corruption, establishment of the rule of law and the adoption of Western democratic principles.
Money is also at stake, with the International Monetary Fund and other Western donors putting a multibillion-dollar loan package on hold.
Public opinion polls blame Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk and parliament for failure to act or, as critics allege, even blocking the necessary changes. For instance, Poroshenko still hasn’t named a successor to Viktor Shokin, the prosecutor general who filed his resignation under pressure on Feb. 16 after failing to bring any major corruption cases to court after a year in his job.
The Verkhovna Rada can’t vote to sack Yatsenyuk until July, but pressure on him to quit is rising.
Jaresko and Groysman, who both attended the 12th Annual Investor Conference on March 10, avoided the question of whether either of them was ready to become prime minister.
Jaresko said she was focused on her current job as the nation’s finance minister and expressed irritation at talk of the government being in crisis.
“The government is not in crisis and is working every day,” Jaresko said. “I don’t like speculation. The speculation is what is causing the crisis to some extent.”
Groysman, however, blamed the government for the political crisis, saying the Yatsenyuk-led government has lost touch with the nation and parliament because of its unprofessionalism.
He also said cryptically that Yatsenyuk “has to decide,” but avoided saying whether that meant he thinks the prime minister should resign.
The attempts by Jaresko and Groysman to downplay the issue left many at the conference unconvinced.
Sergey Fursa, an analyst of Kyiv-based investment firm Dragon Capital, posted pictures on his Facebook page of panels at the conference attended by Jaresko and Groysman, adding jokingly: “We called it the primaries.”
Political analysts and lawmakers contacted by the Kyiv Post said both Jaresko and Groysman are indeed being considered as candidates for premier.
Meanwhile, parliament, which returns to work on March 15, won’t have time for more squabbling. The European Union and Ukraine’s Western creditors expect lawmakers to start working right away, passing improved anti-corruption, court and election legislation, as demanded by the West.
Natalie Jaresko
Jaresko has proven to be one of the most effective members of Yatsenyuk’s government, keeping afloat the cash-strapped country’s finances over the last two critical years.
Born in Chicago in a family of Ukrainian immigrants, Jaresko, 50, has a bachelor’s degree in accounting at DePaul University in Chicago and a master’s in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Pros
Western-born and Western-educated, Jaresko is trusted by Western donors, including the International Monetary Fund. After five months of hard negotiations, in August 2015 she reached a deal with private bondholders to secure a 20 percent cut of the country’s debts. Jaresko’s team launched tax changes last year that won positive reviews for lowering rates and beginning to simplify payments. Jaresko is also seen as equally distant from Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. She has never been a member of any Ukrainian political party.
Jaresko declared an income of more than $2 million in 2014, mostly in the form of dividends received from abroad. She has never been suspected of any corrupt schemes or any links to Ukrainian oligarchs.
Cons
Although Poroshenko granted Jaresko Ukrainian citizenship in December 2014, she has two years to decide whether to accept it permanently. Jaresko used to work at the U.S. Department of State in Washington D.C., and in the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv in 1992-1995. If she becomes prime minister, criticism that Ukraine is under external government is bound to rise. She is a close friend of Kateryna Yushchenko, the wife of ex-President Viktor Yushchenko, and was also an advisory member of Yushchenko’s Foreign Investors Advisory Council in 2005-2010. Yushchenko’s term is widely seen as a disaster by most Ukrainians, who gave him only 5 percent of their votes in 2010. The premiership is also a political post, and the lack of a support base for her among lawmakers may prove to be an obstacle to any technocratic government she might lead.
Volodymyr Groysman
Groysman is a former mayor of Vinnytsia, a city 370 kilometers southwest of Kyiv. He was elected to head the city twice. Some 359 lawmakers voted for his appointment as parliament speaker in late November 2014, a month after the last parliament elections in Ukraine. Groysman is a member of the Bloc of President Petro Poroshenko. Groysman, 38, has a bachelor’s degree in jurisprudence at the Interregional Academy of Personnel Management and the master’s degree in regional management at the National Academy of the State Administration of the President of Ukraine.
Pros
Groysman made significant changes in Vinnytsia: developing the city’s infrastructure, repairing roads and setting up new public transport routes. He renovated public parks and gardens, and attracted Hr 170 million in Swiss investment for the city’s heating supply system. Under Groysman, Vinnytsia topped the list of 50 best Ukrainian cities to live in compiled by Ukrainian Forbes magazine. He left his mayoral seat when Yatsenyuk invited him to join the Cabinet of Ministers in November 2014 as deputy prime minister for regional development and building.
Cons
Groysman made an impressive career jump from regional mayor to deputy prime minister thanks to his old friendship with Poroshenko, who is connected to Vinnytsia politically and with business ties. Poroshenko owns a confectionary factory in Vinnitsya. The city elected him to parliament in 2012.
As speaker, Groysman has pushed for legislation that plays into the hands of corrupt politicians, including laws reducing the anti-corruption prosecutor’s independence, exempting corrupt officials from responsibility for fraudulent property declarations, and allowing party leaders to get rid of disloyal rank-and-file members. Groysman has also violated parliamentary procedures. When speaking in parliament in November, Groysman stunned many with openly anti-gay comments. “I hear some fakes that some same-sex marriages may appear in Ukraine. God forbid this ever happening, and we will never support it,” he said.
