You're reading: Guilty!

But soon to be set free?Kyiv Judge Rodion Kireyev on Oct. 11 found Yulia Tymoshenko guilty of exceeding her authority as prime minister in the 2009 gas deal with Russia that ended a three-week shutoff. But international opinion has delivered its own verdict: President Viktor Yanukovych is guilty of using the courts to eliminate his top political rival on bogus criminal charges. The conviction may prompt the West to isolate Ukraine, causing serious damage.

International criticism had not even begun to subside over ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Oct. 11 conviction before authorities charged her with new crimes.

On Oct. 13, authorities announced that Tymoshenko is now facing criminal charges over her gas dealings with another ex-prime minister, Pavlo Lazarenko, when the two were in business together in the mid-1990s with United Energy Systems of Ukraine.

Specifically, investigators with the Security Service of Ukraine said they are investigating allegations that Tymoshenko and Lazarenko — now in a U.S. prison on a money-laundering conviction — conspired to misuse public funds by shifting more than $400 million in corporate liabilities to the state’s budget.

The embezzlement and abuse of office charges against Tymoshenko and Lazarenko are punishable by up to 12 years in prison. Lazarenko is in a low-security federal prison in California and is scheduled to be released in November 2012.

The fresh charges against Tymoshenko were announced only two days after Tymoshenko was convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison in a different case.

After a trial that started in June, a judge on Oct. 11 found that Tymoshenko abused her office as prime minister in 2009 by negotiating a gas deal with Russia that forced the nation to pay $188 million too much. Judge Rodion Kireyev also barred her from running for public office for 10 years and ordered her to reimburse the state for financial damages.

However, the reaction from Europe and the United States was swift: Her trial is political persecution and Ukraine must release her or face international isolation.

The decision to convict and jail the fiery opposition leader for abuse of office has backed President Viktor Yanukovych into a tight corner and left him facing a two-week period that could define his presidency.

Riot police block supporters of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on Kyiv’s Khreshchatyk Street on Oct. (AFP)

On Oct. 20, he is scheduled to visit Brussels to meet European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. EU leaders have made clear that they expect Tymoshenko to be freed and allowed to compete in elections. This could be achieved by pushing legal changes through parliament that would, among other things, decriminalize the abuse-of-office charge for which she was convicted.

Russia also noted its disquiet at the conviction. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will meet Yanukovych in Donetsk on Oct. 18 for crunch talks on the price of Russian natural gas supplies. Moscow is concerned that the verdict against Tymoshenko for agreeing to an overpriced gas contract in 2009 is a way to undermine that agreement.

After reading the guilty verdict for four hours on Oct. 11, Judge Rodion Kireyev announced Tymoshenko’s imprisonment. He also ordered her to pay state gas company Naftogaz nearly $190 million. This is the sum of losses prosecutors accused her of causing Naftogaz to incur by signing the gas deal.

Tymoshenko turned to television cameras and urged supporters to “fight this authoritarian regime.” Her lawyers said she would appeal.

The reaction from Europe was quick and sharp. Statements from foreign ministries and the leadership of the European Union flooded in, giving Yanukovych the clearest sign yet that Ukraine’s attempts to integrate with the 27-nation bloc could be frozen.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said that she was “deeply disappointed” with the court’s verdict, which “confirms that justice is being applied selectively in politically motivated prosecutions.”

She warned of “profound implications” for bilateral relations, including an association agreement. Yanukovych has frequently declared better relations with Europe as his top foreign policy priority.

On Oct. 12, Ashton added that she expected negotiations to be completed, but doubted the document would be ratified.

“I believe we should not walk away from the technical negotiations but continue them with the aim of having before us on the table a document which makes it clear to both sides what is possible – and also what will be lost,” she said.

Opposition leaders slammed the government for placing the country’s European future under threat.

“The authorities have shown that neither the law nor the position of foreign countries means anything to them,” said Oleksandr Turchynov, Tymoshenko’s top adviser. “They are not interested in the European future of our country, but they are interested in the preservation of their power … through political repressions.”

“Having drawn such an obvious red line, the EU’s credibility is at stake,” said Andrew Wilson, a senior fellow at the European Center for Foreign Relations, in comments posted on the think tank’s website. “Ukraine’s whole foreign policy future is now on the line.”

European diplomats have pushed Yanukovych to use his powers to find a way out of the trial.

He again hinted after the verdict that the offense she was convicted of could be decriminalized by changes to the Criminal Code currently under consideration by parliament.

The court’s verdict “isn’t the final decision,” he said. “The appeal court is still ahead. And, of course, the decision it takes and under which legislation it takes this decision will be of great importance.”

Parliament has already passed in first reading a draft bill decriminalizing some articles of the criminal code, but not the one under which Tymoshenko was convicted.

However, a source in the presidential administration said that an amendment would be proposed and the pro-presidential majority would vote in favor in the second reading.

The amendment has already been proposed by opposition parties in parliament, according to Arseniy Yatseniuk, leader of the Front of Changes.

“If the article is decriminalized, the criminal case against Tymoshenko will be closed and the verdict of the court cancelled. Tymoshenko will not have a criminal record and will be able to participate in both presidential and parliamentary elections,” said Valentyna Telychenko, a lawyer who has advised Tymoshenko.

Naftogaz could seek damages from her in a commercial, not a criminal court, Tymoshenko lawyer Mykola Siry added.

Analysts said this would be a way to achieve his aim of making Tymoshenko look guilty and punishing her, but also satisfying the international community.

“It was very important to have Tymoshenko sentenced and to prove that she committed the crime, but not so important to keep her in prison,” said political analyst Vadym Karasiov.

If no solution is found, the major beneficiary appears to be Russia. Analysts said that closing off Ukraine’s European path would embolden attempts by Moscow to draw Ukraine into its customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Yanukovych has been trying to negotiate a deal for cheaper gas supplies from Russia, but Moscow has demanded that Kyiv join the customs union or hand over a stake in Naftogaz. Yanukovych has so far rebuffed the offers, saying he prefers the European political and trade deal.

But the court decision, which could freeze talks with Europe, “weakens Yanukovych’s hand at a time when he’s trying to struggle through a difficult game with the Russians,” said a senior Western diplomat. “He had a weak hand to begin with, and he just made it weaker.”

Ukrainian officials have said Kyiv could challenge the contract in court, which has raised concerns in Moscow, which criticized the conviction of Tymoshenko.

“It is dangerous and counterproductive to cast the entire package of agreement into doubt,” said Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainian government said it expects a new contract to be agreed in the coming weeks. The countries’ presidents meet on Oct. 18 in Donetsk, where tough, drawn-out negotiations will continue.

Kyiv Post staff writers Svitlana Tuchynska and James Marson can be reached at [email protected] and [email protected].