The parade that passed the reviewing stand on Khreshchatyk on the 10th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence can be viewed on different levels.
First, there was the demonstration of Ukraine’s military readiness. After inspection by Defense Minister Oleksandr Kuzmuk, 6,500 military and paramilitary personnel marched past accompanied by 332 units of military equipment, with 53 military and civilian aircraft passing overhead.
One thing was immediately obvious: 10 years after the Soviet army ceased to exist, military forms of address have not changed. All of the amplified commands between Kuzmuk and subordinate commanders began with the salutation “Comrade General!” or “Comrade Colonel!”
There was also a nod to the more-distant past in the form of a newly formed company in uniforms patterned on 18th-century Cossacks. While this squadron was certainly a sight, Ukraine’s taxpayers may be less impressed when they learn that each of the uniforms cost Hr 4,000 – more than the combined average annual incomes of three Ukrainian pensioners.
There was another more sinister innovation in this year’s parade. One of the 19 marching units was made up of uniformed and militarized State Tax Police. This presented what we believe to be the unique spectacle of a defense minister reviewing troops addressed as “Comrade Tax Inspectors.” Perhaps this presages a new level of tax collection activity in Ukraine.
On the reviewing stand
In Soviet times, to determine what was happening at the top Kremlinologists would observe how dignitaries arranged themselves on Lenin’s tomb for the May Day parade. In Ukraine, the Independence Day reviewing-stand lineup is a helpful indicator of the state of the country’s foreign relations.
For example, President Kuchma spent the parade in very friendly and animated conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, the U.S. representative, an assistant secretary from the State Department, was nowhere to be seen. The good old days of first-name back-slapping sessions between Kuchma and President Bill Clinton seem to be forgotten. President Bush is taking most of his advice on Ukraine policy from National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, who is reputed to be much more Russian-oriented than her predecessors.
Future U.S. ambassador in training
In addition to the official State Department delegations, there were also separate delegations representing the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The Senate delegation included Sen. Richard Lugar, widely known in Ukraine for his previous visits connected to the Nunn-Lugar demilitarization program for destruction of nuclear missiles. He was accompanied by Sen. Chuck Hegel of Nebraska.
The House of Representatives included Reps. Bob Schaffer of Colorado and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio. These two, both of whom had Ukrainian grandparents, co-chair the Ukraine Caucus in the House and are frequent visitors.
On Aug. 25, the House group held a working breakfast hosted by the Western NIS Investment Fund, at which U.S. and Ukrainian investors discussed their operations and U.S. aid.
Washington sources indicate that Rep. Schaffer, who campaigned for Congress on a pledge that he would not seek re-election after three terms, wants to be the next U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
Progress on energy matters
The friendly banter between Kuchma and Putin may have been the result of progress in three energy issues.
Regarding Ukraine’s natural gas debt, there was progress but no final agreement. Russia continues to say the debt is $2.2 billion, while Ukraine says it’s $1.34 billion. Ukraine wants a 12-year payout schedule, while Russia wants 10 years. However, the major sticking point is that Ukraine wants the debt recognized as corporate debt of Naftogaz Ukrainy, while Russia insists that it is sovereign debt.
One matter that has been settled and implemented is incorporation of Ukraine into the Russian electrical grid. Some Ukrainians object that this will allow Russia to transmit electricity to customers in Central Europe via Europe, but it is already a done deal.
Finally, Russia has agreed to assist in the so-called K2R4 project for completing construction of nuclear power units [Khmelnitsky 2, Rivne 4] begun in the 1980s but stalled since 1991. The scope of Russian financial and technical assistance is still being discussed.
