The growth of monetary base in Ukraine in 2013 will amount to 6-8% depending on the scenario of economic development.
Relevant figures were stipulated in the main principles of monetary and credit policy for 2013, the text of which has been posted on the Web site of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“The government’s forecast for macroeconomic indicators contains two scenarios. Under the first [optimistic] scenario of economic development, the growth of the monetary base in 2013 could be 8%. If the macroeconomic situation develops according to the second [pessimistic] scenario, there is reason to forecast that the growth of the monetary base will be 6%,” reads the document, which was approved by the National Bank of Ukraine in September 2012.
As reported, in the first half of 2012, the NBU said the country’s monetary base could expand 12-16% in 2012, depending on how the macroeconomic figures go. Actually the dynamics of the figure was a mere 6.4% (up to UAH 255.3 billion). In 2011, monetary base was up by 6.3%.
The paper notes that the government’s optimistic forecast for 2013 foresees an increase in GDP of 3.4%, with inflation being 4.8% and the pessimistic one – 2.5% and 6.1% respectively.
The document also emphasizes that the implementation of monetary and credit policy in 2013 and the next years foresees, in particular, the observance of the principle of the NBU’s having no commitments on keeping at a certain level or within a certain range of the hryvnia to foreign currency exchange rate.
