Must be willing to take on political suicide mission, say experts
icially accepted the prime ministers resignation, President Leonid Kuchma now faces the difficult task of finding a replacement acceptable to both allies and foes from across the political spectrum.
In order to secure badly needed foreign assistance and investment dollars, Kuchma must produce a candidate with reformist credentials convincing enough to reassure Western governments that Ukraine has not completely lost its way on the road to a market economy.
That candidate must then win majority approval from a leftistdominated Parliament that has blocked a Western-backed package of economic reforms since November of last year.
But any would-be prime minister popular enough to fill this tall order would in turn pose a threat to Kuchma as a potential opponent in upcoming presidential elections, analysts say.
The person who replaces Lazarenko will have to become a kamikaze, said independent political analyst Serhiy Rudenko. All because of the coming elections, and also the problems his predecessor left behind, such as wage arrears and stalled reform.
Since his appointment in May 1996, Lazarenko and his government have been unable to push reforms past Parliament and failed to reverse Ukraines sharp post-Soviet economic slide.
The nations economy shrank by about 10 percent last year and is still falling fast. Millions of workers and pensioners are owed the equivalent of $2.7 billion in back wages.
Lazarenkos dismissal comes as Ukraine continues to negotiate for a $2.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has been slow in approving the funds because of the governments failure to win adoption of key tax reforms and deregulatory measures.
The new prime minister will have to tackle all of these problems in earnest. The potential candidates that have surfaced in discussions with lawmakers and political parties over the past week are all limited in one aspect or another, according to politicians and analysts.
A popular choice put forth by the pro-presidential Peoples Democratic Party is National Bank of Ukraine Governor Viktor Yuschenko, credited at home and abroad with stabilizing the hryvna and reigning in hyperinflation. Observers doubt Yuschenko would be willing to abandon his post to take on the overwhelming challenges of the prime ministers post, however.
He will not accept the job, said Oleksandr Yurchuk, a political analyst for the Pidtekst weekly. He would not want to see his career finished in a year.
Others experts doubt whether Kuchma would appoint such a potentially strong rival to such a powerful position.
By appointing Yuschenko, the president would create for a runway for him for the presidential elections, said Roman Zwarycz, Director of the Center for Democratic Reform think tank.
Two other PDP candidates are Valeriy Pustovoitenko, minister of the Cabinet and native of the politically powerful Dnipropetrovsk region, and Anatoliy Kinakh, chairman of the Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.
The independent Kinakhs powerful industrial lobby could make him a problematic choice for a president seeking to consolidate a strong base of support for upcoming elections, however.
Former Parliament Speaker Ivan Pliusch has been put forth by some as an ideal candidate for a position that may well prove temporary. Others claim he lacks the necessary economic background.
Nobody … would be able to provide a good argument that Pliusch is more competent than Yuschenko, for example, said Zwarycz.
Another dark horse candidate is Oleh Diomin, head of the Kharkiv regional administration. Though he also enjoys the support of the PDP and regional industrialists, most feel Kuchma is unlikely to appoint such a newcomer to the political game.
A final option would be to retain acting Prime Minister Vasyl Durdynets, who seems safely under Kuchmas control. Leftists in Parliament have not yet forgiven him for supporting a drive to oust Parliament Speaker Oleksandr Moroz just a month ago, however.
Kuchma must nominate a new prime minister within 60 days, and his choice is subject to approval by a simple majority in the 450-seat Parliament, which is set to break for the summer later this month.
The president recently indicated that he would seek approval of a new candidate before the recess, however. Serhiy Sobolev, a deputy from the Reforms faction said July 2 that Kuchma had agreed that a new prime minister would be named within 10 days.
Deadlines are pressing and names are flying, but the government appeared no closer to a final decision this week.
Its impossible to predict who will come next, said Anton Kriukov, an editor of the daily newspaper Den.
