You're reading: Yanukovych approval rating slips to 11 percent in nation

Viktor Yanukovych’s approval rating is dipping down into Viktor Yushchenko territory.

In April, the president’s rating reached an all-time low of 11 percent, down from 41 percent a year ago, according to Kyiv think tank Razumkov Center.

Yanukovych’s predecessor, Yushchenko, ended his five-year presidency in 2010 with public support measured only in the single digits.

But the president’s people say they aren’t alarmed.

Andriy Yermolaev, a presidential adviser, said Yanukovych’s post-election ratings dip is to be expected. “Naturally, Yanukovych’s rating has dropped from when voters were mobilized” before his Feb. 7, 2010, election as president, Yermolaev said.

Support for Yanukovych has plunged sharply since he took over as president, sinking in parallel with consumer confidence amid rising inflation.

“The growth in prices for food produce and housing and utility services has negatively reflected on the support level of Ukrainians for the president and the Party of Regions,” Austria’s Erste Bank said in a May 17 report.

Citing recent surveys, Erste warned that consumer confidence and inflation on essential goods could lead to popular unrest.

That gauge inched up slightly in April after dipping in prior months to levels last seen during the 2009 recession, according to a monthly index produced by GfK Ukraine.

“[A] slowdown in price increases in April calmed consumers to some extent, but the credibility of economic policy remains at a low level,” GfK said.
GfK said citizens blame the Yanukovych administration.

Consumer spending in Ukraine drives 60-65 percent of economic growth, according to investment bank Astrum, making expectations important economic indicators.

A pollster who has reportedly worked for Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, Yevhen Kopatko of Research and Branding, said that the public’s attitude is down because of painful austerity measures.

Another recent Razumkov Center survey indicated that 42.5 percent of respondents said they were ready to take to the streets to protest “significant price jumps in essential goods and services.”

Government forecasts put this year’s inflation rate at 8-9 percent, a target that pleases Ukraine’s main creditor, the International Monetary Fund, which bailed out Ukraine last year with a $15 billion credit line.

However, Razumkov’s Vasyl Yurchyshyn said inflation will reach 12-13 percent. As energy prices climb, Yurchyshyn said housing, transportation and utility services will as well.

Sixteen percent of Ukrainians said they have difficulty coming up with money to buy food while 44 percent said they have enough to buy food but not for other essentials like clothing.

Only 32 percent said they have enough of a monthly income with which to buy essential goods and still save money, a late 2010 Razumkov study said.

“The public’s pessimism is natural. They don’t see a way to improve their lives,” said Ihor Zhdanov, president of Open Politics, a Kyiv-based policy center.

While critics compare Yanukovych’s power grab to the way Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin solidified his grasp, one big difference is that Putin in petro-dollar rich Russia has managed to maintain a high approval rating – 69 percent in March, according to Moscow pollster Levada-Center.

By contrast, in Ukraine, analysts say that while rich businessmen close to the president have handsomely profited from inside dealings, Yanukovych has failed to deliver changes that help millions of ordinary citizens.

After giving him the benefit of the doubt last year, investors are also expressing disappointment publicly.

Reform has ground to a halt in Ukraine, investors said during the seventh Adam Smith Conference summit in London, according to Interfax-Ukraine on May 16.

“I’m very disappointed with Ukraine: prospects were good a year ago and it seemed that remarkable people in the administration will not only talk, but also promote reform,” said Royal Bank of Scotland’s Timothy Ash in London.

“The risk for Ukraine is that other, newer markets will bypass it,” said Roland Nash of Verno Capital. “Mongolia’s gross domestic product per capita already exceeds Ukraine.”

Yermolaev, the longtime political adviser to Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, said the public had unrealistic expectations for quick improvement.

Political scientist Zhdanov said authorities are not helping themselves. He said Victory Day clashes in Lviv on May 9 between Ukrainian nationalists and pro-Russian groups over the display of the red Soviet flag was orchestrated by authorities to distract attention from economic woes.

“They artificially want to divide the country in order to set the stage for Yanukovych to face a boogey man radical nationalist for president in 2015,” Zhdanov said.

Zhdanov also said the new tax code is hurting small businesses. “These are people who stand in the cold and sell goods in order to survive,” Zhdanov said. “The new tax code is destroying these small businesses.”

Kyiv Post staff writer Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].