You're reading: World in Ukraine: Germany’s relationship with Yanukovych getting frostier

Three images or events stand out in the current tough state of Ukraine-Germany bilateral relations.ITEM No. 1: A meme is floating around the Internet showing German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin shaking hands. The inscription reads “New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact,” with a map of Ukraine being sold out as it was in 1939.

INTERPRETATION: Germany cares too much about its business relationship with Russia to get too heavily involved in Ukraine. Some Ukrainians are disappointed that Germany, which is the heavyweight of European Union politics, is – for the time being anyway – not considering sanctions against President Viktor Yanukovych and his top officials for human rights abuses linked to EuroMaidan protests. The United States and Canada, on the other hand, have banned key officials from entering those countries.

ITEM No. 2: A strategically released videotape of Yanukovych and Merkel at a cocktail reception on the eve of the Nov. 28-29 Vilnius Summit created a stir. Merkel is shown expressing her disappointment with Yanukovych for backing out of an EU association agreement, saying “we expected more.” Yanukovych complains in response about the lack of EU support for Ukraine. The day after the summit ends, on Nov. 30, Ukrainian police launch the first violent crackdown on EuroMaidan demonstrators.

INTERPRETATION: The overriding impression from the video clip is that Merkel doesn’t like Yanukovych and they don’t have much of a relationship. Another one is that EU leaders wanted to show Yanukovych as a coarse and money-hungry leader.

ITEM NO. 3: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, considered to be very pro-Russian, has replaced Guido Westerwelle, who visited EuroMaidan demonstrators in December to show his support.

INTERPRETATION: Germany’s relationship with Russia will trump its relationship with Ukraine. So if Russia won’t let Ukraine get closer to the EU, Germany will abide.

However, criticism that Merkel is selling out Ukraine to Putin appears to be off the mark, even though the German chancellor is not yet willing to consider sanctions.

Merkel told German lawmakers in a speech at the Bundestag on Jan. 29 that she supports the demands of the demonstrations and praised their courage in pressing for democratic reforms.

“They are fighting for the same values that guide the European Union and that is why they must be listened to,” Merkel said. “We support, with all the means at our disposal, efforts for a peaceful solution of the conflict and the justified demands of the opposition.”

She and Putin also talked this week by telephone about Ukraine and she pressed him to take constructive steps to help end Ukraine’s crisis. She has also issued numerous official statements this month calling for negotiations and a non-violent solution.

Another way to gauge the importance of bilateral relations is to count the number of top-level visits.
On that score, there has not been exactly a frenetic pace of dialogue between the two nations. Merkel visited Ukraine in 2008 while Yanukovych visited Germany in 2010 and 2012.

Amid the tension, some German expatriates in Ukraine are running for cover when asked to talk about bilateral relations.

German Ambassador to Ukraine Christof Weil, for instance, agreed to an interview with the Kyiv Post this month, scheduled it and then backed out at the last minute, saying he was too busy and, anyway, the public knows what he thinks.

Even businesses are skittish about talking publicly in the midst of Ukraine’s political crisis. After giving an interview with the Kyiv Post on purely business topics, a representative of a German-based company in Ukraine had second thoughts and requested to cancel the story, citing nervousness over the tense political situation.

So the Kyiv Post turned to two academics who watch Ukraine-German relations closely for insight.
One is Susan Stewart, a Berlin-based research for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The other is Andreas Umland, an associate professor at Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

Stewart said accusations that Germany is selling out Ukraine for the sake of good Russian relations are off base.

Merkel has taken a tougher stand with Putin, she noted, by more openly criticizing his human rights abuses and interference in Ukraine’s affairs. Merkel, however, is also frustrated with Yanukovych for his backtracking on the EU political and trade deal. The prevailing view in Germany, Stewart said, is that sanctions against the Ukrainian regime will turn it into another Belarus, an outcast from the European community.

Stewart expects little substance between Germany and Ukraine as long as Yanukovych is in office. “If Yanukovych does manage to stay in power, I doubt there would be any more than superficial dealings with him,” Stewart said.

Moreover, Stewart said, “there’s a lot of sympathy” in Germany for imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Yanukovych’s rival who is considered by the West as a political prisoner. German doctors are treating Tymoshenko for spinal problems and, had Yanukovych pardoned her, Germany would likely be her destination.

She does not, however, think that the political tensions will affect trade ties much.

Umland, a German who teaches university classes in Kyiv, said that polls show most Germans want to see Ukraine join the EU within 20 years.

“The population is quite pro-Ukraine,” Umland said. “I think they understand that Ukraine is geopolitically important and in the future could be economically important.”

At the same time, Umland said, Germans don’t see any conflict between having good relations with Ukraine and Russia. They believe that by drawing Ukraine into the European democratic community, Russia will change for the better also.

He admits, however, there’s a double standard in the way Germany treats Ukraine and Russia.
Ukrainians “are seen as our people, not a geographical rival,” Umland said. “They should play by the European rules and if they don’t, they are bad. Russia is not expected to play by European rules.”

Kyiv Post chief editor Brian Bonner can be reached at [email protected].