PYONGYANG/SEOUL, April 13 (Reuters) -North Koreaadmitted its much hyped long-range rocket failed to deliver a satellite into orbit on Friday while U.S. and South Korean officials said it crashed into the sea a few minutes after launch, dealing a blow to the reclusive state.
Pyongyanghad defied international pressure from the United States, theUnited Nationsand others to push ahead with the launch timed to celebrate the 100th birthday ofKim Il-sung, the deceased founder of the state, and to coincide with the ascent to power of his grandsonKim Jong-un.
Even close allyChinahad warned against the launch andSouth Korean intelligenceofficials have saidNorth Koreamay be ready to follow it up with a nuclear test as it did after a rocket launch in 2009, even though it could face more United Nations sanctions if it did.
"The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit," a newsreader said onNorth Korea‘s state TV. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure."
It was an unusual admission of failure by the unpredictable regime, since it will be seen by its 23 million people who are only given access to state-controlled news sources. A similarly-failed launch in 2009 was touted by the North as a success.
Friday’s launch breached the terms of a recent aid deal struck with theUnited Statesas well asUnited Nationssanctions.Washington,TokyoandSeoulissued sharp rebukes and said they would step up cooperation and vigilance.
"Despite the failure of its attempted missile launch, North Korea’s provocative action threatens regional security, violates international law and contravenes its own recent commitments,"White HousespokesmanJay Carneysaid in a statement.
North Koreasaid it wanted the Unha-3 rocket to put a weather satellite into orbit, although critics believed it was designed to enhance its capacity to design a ballistic missile to deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting the continentalUnited States.
The rocket crashed in a sea that separates the Korean peninsula fromChinaoff thewest coast of South Koreaafter flying 120 km (75 miles) from its launch site close to the Chinese border, officials inSeoul,WashingtonandTokyosaid.
TheNorth American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, said the first stage fell into the sea west ofSouth Korea, and the remainder of the satellite-carrying missile was deemed to have failed.
"No debris fell on land," NORAD said. "At no time were the missile or the resultant debris a threat.
The world’s most militarised border separates North andSouth Koreaand the two states remain technically at war after an armistice ended the Korean War in 1953.
South Koreasaid it was dispatching ships to try to retrieve the rocket, which it said split into 20 fragments as the first and second stages failed to separate, showing that the new rocket had failed to travel as far as the previous one in 2009.
A Russian observer, a space policy expert from the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, told Reuters inPyongyangthat long range rocket launches took time to perfect.
"So I would be quite surprised if the third launch of a North Korean rocket would end up in a success, although I believe that they had from 60 to 70 percent chance to successfully put the satellite into orbit," saidYuri Karash.
CHINAHOLDS KEY DESPITE DIPLOMATIC FAILURE
The launch was announced just weeks after a "Leap Year" deal that sawWashingtonagree to provide food aid. Among the promises made byPyongyangin return was that it would not launch a long range rocket or undertake nuclear tests.
Loud complaints from theUnited States,South KoreaandJapanwill likely lead to pressure for more sanctions to closePyongyang‘s access to trade that could aid the North’s programme, althoughChinawould probably resist even though its diplomacy failed to stop the rocket.
"After giving so much aid toNorth Korea, it still did not listen toChina, and this hurtChina–North Korearelations and erodes domestic support in its continued support of North Korea," saidShen Dingli, a professor and regional security expert atShanghai’s Fudan University.
"This also undermines confidence in the U.S.-Chinarelationship, and whetherChinahad done enough to persuade the North. So,Chinais also a loser, but not as big a loser as ifNorth Koreasucceeded in its launch," he said.
A tough push for sanctions, which Japanese Prime MinisterYoshihiko Nodapledged, could lead a show of defiance from the North such as a a nuclear test, or an attack like the one in 2010 that saw it shell a South Korean island, killing civilians.
"Rather than any conventional provocation, I think North Korea will watch what U.S. andSouth Koreaare doing and prepare for a nuclear test," saidChung Young-chul, a professor atSogang University’s Graduate Schoolof Public Policy.
PRICE OF FAILURE FOR "SUPREME COMMANDER"
Now led by 20-somethingKim Jong-un, the third of his line to hold power,North Koreahad planned to make 2012 the year in which it became a "strong and prosperous nation" and the launch was part of a programme to burnish its credentials.
It even invited foreign media in to cover the birthday celebrations and showed them the launch site.
Kim was named First Secretary of theWorkers Party of Koreaon Wednesday, as he accumulates titles and posts similar to those held by his father,Kim Jong-il.
State newspaperRodong Sinmunon Friday dubbed him "the sun whom all the party members, service personnel and people of the DPRK (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) acclaimed out of their heartfelt desire".
"(There is) no question that the failed launch turns speculation toward the ramifications for the leadership inPyongyang: a fireworks display gone bad on the biggest day of the year," saidScott Snyderof the Council on Foreign Relations.
AlthoughNorth Koreais one of the most tightly controlled states on earth, with no free media and a tight grip on its population, such a high profile failure could trigger a backlash among the country’s elite and places question marks over Kim Jong-un.
"This is the first crisis for the new leader that has just taken over," saidLee Jong-won, a professor atWaseda UniversityinTokyo.
"It is inevitable that they will look to find who is responsible for the failure, and I wonder what the treatment will be for those in the military and the hard-line officers who have pressed for the launch." (Additional reporting by Yoko Kubota and Nobuhiro Kubo inTOKYO,; Jack Kim inSEOUL, Jeff Mason and Paul Eckert inWASHINGTON, Michael Martina in BEIJING; Writing by David Chance, Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
