Russian voters last week handed a slap in the face to strongman Vladimir Putin.
In a parliamentary vote that Russian and international observers said was flawed, his United Russia party lost 15 percent of the support it had in 2007 despite the ballot stuffing and blanket media coverage it reportedly benefitted from.
Then, more than 5,000 protesters hit the streets to denounce the elections and the ruling party, which is now commonly known as “the party of crooks and thieves.”
They weren’t on the streets in favor of opposition candidates, but to send a message that they are not happy with the situation in the country – the corruption and the political and economic stagnation that Putin’s choreographed return to the presidency next year will almost certainly bring.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukoyvch should listen to the rumblings.
The situation in Ukraine is similar to that in Russia – an authoritarian leader supported by a party derided by its critics as consisting of “crooks and thieves.” In Ukraine, the Party of Regions has lost popularity even faster than United Russia.
Having selectively prosecuted political opponents, the current authorities are now set on staying in power indefinitely to prevent anyone taking revenge.
In Moscow, pro-Putin activists were placed on key squares to “defend” United Russia’s victory.
The situation in Ukraine is similar to that in Russia – an authoritarian leader supported by a party derided by its critics as consisting of “crooks and thieves.”
Yanukovych employed a similar strategy ahead of the 2010 presidential elections, when thousands of Party of Regions supporters occupied squares in Kyiv ahead of the vote to prevent a repeat of the Orange Revolution in 2004.
Yanukovych’s continued assertions that his 2004 election “victory” wasn’t fraudulent and that the Orange Revolution stole the presidency from him betrays the fact that he believes in words often attributed to Josef Stalin: “It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.”
In Ukraine, discontent tends to rise faster than in Russia.
If Yanukovych and his allies fix the fall 2012 parliamentary elections, there will be more than 5,000 people on the streets.
Then, Yanukovych will again face a choice between Russia and the West.
He could accept his allies’ defeat and work with a reconfigured majority in parliament.
Or, he could send in the police to clear away protesters and pay activists to drown them out, as Putin did in Russia.
We fear Yanukovych will choose the latter option.
