Putin’s aims remain the same: to dismember Ukraine and reclaim as much of it as he can. He’s willing to be patient. His Crimean adventure allows him to claim a greater area of the Black Sea as Russia’s – and steal potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in oil and natural gas deposits from Ukraine. The free world must continue to isolate with economic and political sanctions until he surrenders Crimea. The two-million Crimeans should resist the occupiers, assisted by mainland Ukrainians.
Ukrainians have shown that, despite institutions hobbled by corruption for 23 years, they will rally when the nation’s survival is at stake. Aside from Crimea, Putin’s attempts to divide and conquer have failed except in Donetsk and Luhansk. There are signs he is failing there and now trying to distance himself from the rag-tag band of separatists he incited and, probably, financed through intermediaries.
The Western pressure, light as it has been, has helped. But the real credit goes to Ukrainians and even to oligarchs like billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, who seems to have finally realized he could lose his fortune if more of Ukraine becomes part of Russia or breakaway republics.
It was the same way during World War II. The prospect of a victorious Hitler scared the rich and powerful into mobilizing public and private resources to defeat the threat of Nazi Germany. And so it is today.
There are already signs that people in separatist strongholds are turning against the gun-toting men in masks. Donetsk and Luhansk residents should be able to clearly see that gunmen will not educate their children, fix roads or pay pensions.
When Ukraine wins this fight, the nation needs to act on the lessons it has learned. Among them is decentralization of power from Kyiv, so that regions can elect their own leaders, levy some taxes and control their budgets with national oversight, of course, and the highest degree of accountability and transparency. Another is to build sustainable, accountable institutions that serve the people. Yet another is to put an end to the nation’s oligarchy – a form of mini-Putinism that has weakened the nation. Perhaps the best legacy of Putin’s aggression is that the vast majority of Ukrainians have rejected his authoritarianism, xenophobia and state-sponsored crony capitalism. This nation is making a clean break for the West and embracing universal democratic principles, once and for all.
