She said that a single presidential candidate from the opposition is “not needed” and “highly dangerous for victory.”
She argued that it’s anti-democratic to have a small group of people pick a candidate and would repeat the mistake of 2004 when the opposition rallied around Viktor Yushchenko. She also insisted that a bigger choice of candidates would better motivate voters.
Then at the May 30 Gorshenin forum in Kyiv, Arsen Avakov, a leading Tymoshenko advocate, said that a larger pool of presidential candidates would inspire debates within the ranks of the opposition and likewise, the virtues of various challengers to dethroning President Viktor Yanukovych in 2015.
But if there’s one thing the opposition has too much of, its talk and one-upmanship. Rivalries within the ranks are destructive, and intensifying. We believe Tymoshenko’s advice is counter-productive and perilous, and here’s why.
The biggest challenge for the next presidential election will likely be its fairness, as the latest parliamentary election showed. If the incumbent cannot win fair and square, he will cheat, so the question is really about how much cheating will take place. There are various voices whispering in the president’s ear about how best to go about it, but preparations are already underway.
So the opposition must somehow prevent cheating, resist it, and fight it as it is happening. Divided in the first round with multiple presidential campaigns, the opposition will be undermined by its inability to act and even plan in unison, regardless of what kind of amicable agreements they achieve.
Meanwhile, the incumbent can draw on a reservoir of resources to stay in power that are readily available: from rubber-stamping advantageous laws, to setting up numerous official and unofficial campaign headquarters, to stacking election commissions and using the resources of the media, big and local business and local governments. There is much, much more.
If the opposition runs separate campaigns, how will they parry the incumbent’s onslaught? They need every foot soldier and every paid hand to be effective. They will need to combine their brainpower to creatively come up with ways to meet the challenges. It simply won’t happen if their staffs are competing at the same time.
