Some say it’s the first step to bringing peace in Donbas. Others call it the end of Ukrainian control over the territory. Either way, it’s happening.
On Oct. 29, the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed fighters in the war-torn region began mutual disengagement at the small city of Zolote in Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast. Both sides are pulling a kilometer back from the front line. If everything goes according to plan, withdrawal will decrease gunfire and prevent military and civilian casualties.
Two days later, while meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Zelensky announced the next round of disengagement would take place at the front-line village of Petrivske on Nov. 4.
Zelensky clearly recognizes disengagement as the first step in implementing the Steinmeier Formula, a peace plan that envisions free and fair local elections in Donbas under the Ukrainian political system and, finally, Ukraine regaining control over its border with Russia.
But the president’s opponents think otherwise. They believe that Zelensky is ceding territory to the Kremlin and that the Steinmeier Formula is not in the country’s interests. Some Ukrainians — including in the front-line towns where the pull-back is taking place — have actively opposed disengagement.
One thing is clear: Barring a new eruption of serious fighting on the front line, Zelensky is going ahead with disengagement.
As disengagement began on Oct. 29, Zelensky addressed the RE:THINK investment forum in Donetsk Oblast’s port city of Mariupol. He promised investors in Donbas a level playing field and his protection.
The forum got high marks from people like Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, and emerging markets analyst Tim Ash.
Nothing is certain in Ukraine. A new round of gunfire could derail disengagement, proving Zelensky’s critics right. Visitors to Mariupol might leave and decide not to invest.
But both events — disengagement and attempts to lure investment — potentially offer a small break from the stalemate of endless low-level war and economic stagnation. Let’s hope that Zelensky is right. The Donbas desperately needs both peace and economic growth.
And let’s hope his administration is also correct that, should the Kremlin’s proxies violate the withdrawal agreements, the Ukrainian army will be ready to rush back to its old positions. Stagnation is bad, but defeat would be worse.
