Reality: The public doesn’t know what Russia offered or didn’t offer, and there are conflicting versions of whether a deal was struck. But it wasn’t all about the money. President Viktor Yanukovych also didn’t meet EU conditions for democracy and human rights. Those include revamping Ukraine’s draconian and unjust legal system and ending selective prosecution, symbolized by the imprisonment of Yanukovych’s political enemy, ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, in 2011. He could have done all these things, regardless of the prospect of an association agreement or money.
Myth:The government’s Nov. 21 rejection of the EU deal shows that it wants to be closer to Russia.
Reality: Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt may have said it best about Ukraine. “They are not going West. I don’t think they are going East. I feel they are going down.”
The EU bureaucracy and diplomatic-speak are mind-numbing, for sure, and trying to get consensus among its 28 member nations is hard. But while the EU says that the door is always open to Ukraine, it says the same thing to Belarus and Azerbaijan, which are both run by dictators. These nations must become democracies, something their leaders – and Yanukovych – don’t want to do.
Myth: The financial cost of bringing Ukraine’s laws and institutions up to EU standards is high, some $27 billion a year by Yanukovych’s estimate.
Reality: Nobody knows how Yanukovych came up with those estimates. They seem to be pulled out of thin air and highly unrealistic, considering that Ukraine’s annual gross domestic product is only $170 billion. Such estimates feed the public perception that Yanukovych was auctioning the nation to the highest bidder. Moreover, Yanukovych has had three years to make the necessary changes if he was serious about the EU deal. That said, the EU’s offer of $800 million in assistance, if Ukraine met the International Monetary Fund’s conditions for a $15 billion loan, wasn’t generous. But given how untransparently public money is spent in Ukraine, nobody can blame the EU for not wanting to throw away good money on the nation’s entrenched elite.
Myth: The EuroMaidan demonstrators agree with Yanukovych and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. Everybody is on the same team.
Reality: Yanukovych and Azarov show a stunning detachment from reality, or merely cynical posturing, when they try to adopt EuroMaidan’s cause of closer European integration as their own. They richly deserve the peaceful protests they are witnessing, because Ukraine’s leaders up until Nov. 21 promised they would meet EU conditions for signing the association agreement. When that turned out to be false, public anger and feelings of betrayal were genuine. It is doubtful that this administration can regain the public’s trust.
Myth: Everybody in Ukraine favors closer ties with the EU over Russia.
Reality: While the polls suggest a majority of Ukrainians do indeed want to align with the West, a strong minority favor closer ties with Russia, while another cohort wants Ukraine to remain separate from the EU or Russia. So the competition for hearts and minds continues. What’s encouraging is that young people are overwhelmingly for EU integration.
Myth: Political opposition leaders have a clear strategy.
Reality: Up to a point, that’s true. They organized and responded to the public anger quickly, although the spontaneous nature of the uprising led to improvisation. But the leaders failed to achieve their immediate goals, including the convening of a session of parliament on Nov. 27 to pass laws needed for EU integration. They also failed to persuade Yanukovych to sign the agreement today in Vilnius, Lithuania. So what’s next? It seems the opposition leaders don’t have an exit strategy after the summit. There is a debate going on about whether to seize the moment and stay out on the streets, or whether to take a pause and regroup for spring or for the 2015 presidential elections. It is hard to see how long people will stay in the streets for political speeches and concerts. One big difference – and disadvantage – for protesters is that this is different from the 2004 Orange Revolution, when a clear goal was achieved. The rigged election that year was overturned by the Supreme Court. A new election was held. Most people (except Yanukovych and his supporters) accepted the result of the rerun election. This time, however, the goal – an EU-Ukraine association agreement – doesn’t have a strict timeline or deadline. So now what?
Myth: Violent clashes between police and protesters have marred these demonstrations.
Reality: The clashes make for dramatic footage and photos. But both police and protesters have been commendably restrained. There are a few hotheads, including provocateurs-for-hire and tear gas-toting Svoboda party members. We make a plea for restraint and non-violence.
