Snubbing Ukraine’s leaders, cutting off aid and freezing trade agreements are not going to be enough to get President Viktor Yanukovych to reverse his authoritarian course, much less persuade him to free imprisoned political opponents.
This administration experienced humiliation when a bevy of European leaders recently threatened to boycott the Euro 2012 games to be played in Ukraine next month. Yanukovych also may have been hurt when Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel on May 10 called him a dictator.
But these light and tardy actions by the West are not going to be enough to change the authoritarianism slide that’s been under way since the president took power more than two hours ago.
We agree with those who say that the ruling regime’s twin aims are to stay in power and make lots of money for insiders. There should have never been any surprise about the motives of the Yanukovych administration to anyone.
Yet the West stood silently by as the regime grabbed power in all branches of government by stacking courts, ignoring the Constitution and defying laws. While Ukraine’s media are freer than counterparts in most of the former Soviet Union, the truth is that power in this nation has little to fear from journalism watchdogs – most media outlets are owned by five wealthy, pro-government oligarchs.
But there’s enough freedom and democratic sentiment within Ukraine, and enough concern about the nation’s fate abroad, for a concerted effort to persuade Yanukovych to change course. Fears that he will be pushed into Russia’s arms are overblown — Vladimir Putin’s embrace is not a soft and cuddly one.
Time, however, is running out. The next big test is the Oct. 28 elections. Given current polls, there’s little chance that the ruling pro-presidential Party of Regions can win an honest election. Watch out for election fraud. The president’s continued control of parliament will help ensure that he gets re-elected in 2015, whether the people want it or not.
We agree with the tough prescription of Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, a visiting scholar for Carnegie Europe, who on May 14 wrote: “Perhaps the most effective step would be to scrutinize the financial and other assets of the [Yanukovych] Family and oligarchs that are held in European Union countries. Cyprus would be the perfect place to start – if the EU can drum up the political will and the means. To really have an impact, however, the EU will have to go all the way and freeze those assets.”
At the same time, Western engagement with Ukrainians must intensify so that policies are clearly explained and supported. There’s hope for a targeted but tougher strategy that doesn’t punish the whole nation for the behavior of its leaders. According to polling by the International Republican Institute, 81 percent of Ukrainians would support the freezing of assets abroad and the suspension of visas for Ukrainian officials engaged in corrupt practices.
