Yes, Ukraine would still become independent if the Ukrainians had to make the choice now. That’s the good news. But the bad news is only just, and the number of supporters of independence continues to go down.
A July poll, conducted by Razumkov Center, a private think tank, showed that only 56 percent of the respondents would support independence. Those who would vote against now constitute 20.7 percent of the population, up by nearly 3 percent from last year.
Figures from their colleagues, Rating Group, are somewhat more optimistic. Their August poll showed that 61 percent of Ukrainians would vote for independence and 28 percent would not. This is still much less that 90.3 percent who supported independence at the Dec. 1, 1991 referendum.
These are vast regional and age-based differences in the polls that give quite a lot of insight into why Ukrainians are disappointed. The older the respondents and the further east they live, the less happy they are with Ukraine’s independence.
For those groups, independence simply has not paid off. For miners and metallurgy workers in the east the industrial might of the Soviet times has been replaced by a combination of rich oligarch bosses and economic recession that reduces demand for their commodities.
Both phenomena (at least within the borders of Ukraine) are a result of years of poor state governance, unfair asset distribution, lawlessness and corruption.
For the older people, the story is possibly even sadder: a generation born during World War II or into the ruin right after, they have lived through destruction, a massive Soviet collective rebuilding effort, stagnation, Perestroika, and then another ruin and chaos of the late Soviet days and early days of independence.
This is a lot for a single generation to endure. But on top of that, they have small pensions, a crumbling healthcare system and a government that only pays attention to their needs about once a year, on Victory Day.
Despite gaining independence, Ukraine has failed many expectations of its citizens. It’s very sad, and the only consolation is that 22 years is a very short time for a nation.
There is still a lot of hope that it will turn out just fine. And those Independence Day polls will follow.
