Well, sort of.
It’s still a big question what strings Vladimir Putin attached to his bailout, which allows Ukraine to stay financially solvent in the short-term, and continue to push the same unaffordably shortsighted policies.
It’s clear enough that the new, lower gas price will have to be reviewed quarterly, just to make sure Ukraine behaves. The same is true about Russia’s commitment to purchase Ukraine’s Eurobonds. This puts Yanukovych right where Putin wants him: On a short leash.
Yanukovych did not make it any clearer in his Oct. 19 live TV interview what other hooks Russia has into him and the nation. He mentioned that Ukraine will continue negotiating a consortium with Russia to run the gas transit network. No third partner was mentioned.
It’s not clear if and when more details of this agreement will come out. And in the meantime, EuroMaidan needs a plan.
As inspiring as the protests have been since Nov. 21, spending the winter in cold tents on Independence Square will lose its charm. The anti-corruption, pro-democracy drive will have to move from the streets to other venues.
While it seems that most Ukrainians don’t want Yanukovych as president any more, now might be the better time to stop the in-your-face demands for his immediate resignation. It’s not going to happen until international and domestic pressure reach such a fever pitch that he simply cannot govern. The protest movement hasn’t accomplished that yet.
People are united around the fight against corruption. So now they might be better off enlisting foreign allies in locating and exposing offshore bank accounts held by top politicians. They should use this information to acquaint U.S. and European officials with these officials and others suspected of human rights abuses and other crimes in a possible drive for sanctions. Mounting a successful international lobbying campaign is a worthy challenge for EuroMaidan.
The fight also needs to move to the back rooms, where Party of Regions members and the still-loyal oligarchs need to be persuaded to tip over to the side that stands for democracy and rule of law. After all, rule of law means protection of property rights and personal freedoms – something they value no less than those standing on Maidan. A little public nudge, like those pickets in front of billionaire Rinat Akhmetov’s residence in London, might also be helpful. There are other strategies that can be devised, and the involvement of the activists is crucial here.
