The persecution and arrests of political opponents of the party in power are Shakespearean in complexity and intrigue. It may help Canadians to understand the plot by imagining a hypothetical domestic scenario.
Let’s say a former Canadian liberal prime minister is charged by the conservative incumbent for abuse of power in handling a tough issue, perhaps preventing Quebec’s separation. He is defiant, claiming charges are politically motivated. Most Canadians agree. Moreover, there is evidence that the current prime minister’s office is coaching witnesses and the judge. When the accused requests translation of testimony into the official language, he is arrested for contempt of court.
As unbelievable as it seems this is Ukraine’s reality with an added complication: Russia.
Having accommodated Russia’s demands since coming to power over a year ago–leasing its naval base on the Black Sea to Russia’s advantage; accepting unfavourable energy terms– President Victor Yanukovych is having second thoughts about further accommodations at Ukraine’s own expense. The issue? Joint membership in a free economic zone with Belarus and Kazakhstan thrown into the bargain. Ukraine prefers a 3+1 formula which allows a trade agreement with Europe; Russia’s proposal does not. For a change, both the oligarchs and most citizens agree. Say no to Russia.
Such united support has been eluding the president as he followed Russia’s backsliding from democracy and the rule of law since coming to power some 18 months ago. Now, instead of emphasizing the positive, he precipitated another political catastrophe; the arrest of the leading political opposition leader, Yulia Tymoshenko. Ukraine is in an uproar; global institutions warn of consequences to further European integration. And instead of diffusing the situation the President will allow a sentence to take place perhaps as early as next week, it seems, while crowing about the nations’ judiciary’s independence. Few believe him.
But what about Russia?
Its leaders are snickering into their borsch as criticism of their “friend” Yanukovych mounts. In fact, Russia has joined the chorus, lecturing him on the rule of law despite ongoing arrests of its own opposition, some just weeks ago. Its end game is to isolate Ukraine: without friends it will be forced to sign a trade deal favouring Russia. And, who knows but given the political fiasco a resignation of the incumbent may occur? Or, perhaps, a little invasion along that of Georgia, to “save” Ukraine may be in order to “protect” the people, of course. And how convenient that a most prominent candidate is in jail. Russia might even assist further by proposing an alternate.
It no longer surprises that former President Victor Yushchenko, who betrayed the promise of the Orange Revolution and played a significant part in preventing his former prime minister and pro- West candidate, Ms. Tymoshenko from winning the presidency in the last election, is speaking out. Ukraine must not “turn its back” on Russia’s trade deal, he says, knowing full well it spells the end for a deal with the European Union. Tension is mounting. Both presidents failed to resolve the impasse recently and Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykolai Azarov and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Patin ended badly; a winter’s energy war is quite likely. Recently, Russia sailed five additional military vessels into the Black Sea; some Western countries have increased their military and diplomatic alerts.
Yanukovych would be wise to cultivate new friends given deteriorating relations with old ones. However, the Tymoshenko arrest, on top of that of some 50 others, as well as abuses make this most difficult. Although it is quite likely he was following Russia’s lead in eliminating political opposition in the neighbourhood, the mess stemming from the arrests is his.
It is hoped that here, as with the trade negotiations, the president is learning a lesson: Ukraine’s national interests are not always in sync with those of its former Soviet comrade.
To move forward, Yanukovych must return to democratic standards and make new friends. It remains to be seen whether he can overcome bonds of outdated alliances or, more importantly, withstand further Russia’s pressure: it is bound to escalate. Russia might try force but it is less likely to take on the world’s democratic community were it to stand behind Ukraine. Surely, Yanukovych must see that his only hope to prevent Russia from having its way with trade, or energy for that matter, is to undertake a turnaround; a must get the West on side. The first step is Tymoshenko’s release.
To this end it might be helpful for good friends like Canada’s Prime Minster Stephen Harper, as well as other Western leaders, to make a call and sway Yanukovych to do the right thing. And remind him that Europe and others are interested in trade agreements with Ukraine too, but not while its opposition politicians are in prison. With the sentence, perhaps days away, time is running out.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is the former president, U*Can Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., and senior policy adviser to the government of Canada.
