Imagine that you’re one of the crossover deputies. You’ve just turned your back on the party that got you into the Verhkovna Rada. You’ve joined the Stability and Reforms Coalition for one of three reasons. The least likely reason is that you actually believe in Yanukovych.
The more likely one is that you figured that, by joining the coalition, you’d be delaying new elections — which you suspect your party might lose — and thereby prolonging your stay in the Rada. The most likely reason is that the Party of Regions offered you material incentives to cross over. Or some combination of all three.
How are you likely to behave in the two years between now and the Rada elections scheduled for 2012?