The murder of former Russian Duma deputy-turned-Kremlin critic Denis Voronenkov raises yet more questions about the continued survival of Alexei Navalny, a maverick corruption fighter and now an opposition candidate in the 2018 presidential election in Russia.
Navalny tirelessly criticizes Vladimir Putin and the deeply corrupt political system he has created. Nor does he limit himself to empty rhetoric. His associates regularly dig out information about ill-gotten properties owned by Putin’s associates and their families and publish professionally produced footage on the internet, where it gathers millions of views.
Most recently, Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Fund produced and disseminated a scandalous expose of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Under the guise of bumbling, innocuous idiot, Navalny discovered a consummate thief who owns extensive agricultural holdings in Russia, a remodeled palace in St. Petersburg and acres of prime vineyards in Tuscany — all bought with bribes from Russian oligarchs and shamelessly managed through charitable funds.
Navalny has since started campaigning for president and has been setting up a network of regional headquarters across the country, much like an American presidential candidate. His candidacy is gaining traction, especially among young people.
Navalny was put on trial twice and convicted by a Russian kangaroo court on the same trumped-up charge. His brother is in jail but Navalny was given a suspended sentence both times.
He has been either dismissed by Russian officials as a nobody or attacked as a self-promoting convicted felon. However, the worst that has happened to him so far was a physical attack in which his face was splattered with green antiseptic.
Has Putin mellowed out sufficiently in his old age, or has he grown so confident of his popularity in Russia that he no longer needs to resort to draconian measures? This could have been argued until the latest murder in Kyiv, which demonstrated that Putin is still the old Putin. Absolutely nothing has changed.
So other theories have been advanced. Julia Ioffe, a writer for The Atlantic, suggested that Putin respects enemies but can’t forgive traitors. However, her colleague Anna Politkovskaya, murdered on Putin’s birthday, was always a Putin critic and could never be considered a traitor to him.
Another idea was that Voronenkov was in possession of some highly damaging information about Putin, Yanukovych and even Paul Manafort, a former campaign manager for Donald Trump accused of colluding with Russia. Voronenkov was going to testify – and that got him killed.
But Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader no less charismatic than Navalny, gunned down within a stone throw of the Kremlin, wasn’t planning to testify – only to lead a protest rally much like what Navalny is doing today.
Uncovering corruption in Russia is a very dangerous business. Lawyer Sergey Magnitsky, who uncovered one corrupt scheme, died – or was murdered – in jail. The average Ivan who started to reveal what Russian government officials own probably wouldn’t last very long. It’s highly likely therefore that Navalny enjoys high level protectors or even has direct sponsors. It may be FSB or some other very powerful law enforcement agency.
It sounds crazy, but it may even be Putin himself. Or, if it isn’t Putin, it should be he.
Putin very clearly would like to retire. He would like to lead the life of the international super wealthy, the way Roman Abramovich has been doing for the past decade and a half: to serially marry supermodels, to own a top-flight European football club and a yacht, perhaps to hold a ceremonial position in an international bureaucracy such as the International Olympic Committee or FIFA football association. Above all, to be quits with government responsibilities and attendant fears.
He very clearly wanted to leave the government after his second term in office in 2008, and was seriously looking for a successor. The successor had to meet two requirements: First, he would have to keep Putin safe, the way Putin himself protected Boris `Yeltsin as part of their power transfer bargain. And he would have to be able to hold onto power – i.e., not be overthrown by someone else who could then turn on Putin.
Putin was choosing between his two first deputy prime ministers, Sergey Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev. Ivanov, an ex-defense minister, was certainly strong enough but Putin apparently didn’t trust him completely. So he chose Medvedev, his old personal secretary. Medvedev was completely loyal to his master, but he was weak. Putin nevertheless hoped that when put into a position of power, Medvedev would in time grow into his new role.
That didn’t happen, as Medvedev proved to be an absolute zero. In the end, Putin decided that waiting for Medvedev to mature was a waste of time and abruptly – and humiliatingly for Medvedev – announced his return to the Kremlin.
Back then it might have been possible – just – for President Putin to return to private life and to become Citizen Putin. Now, after assassinations in Russia and abroad, corruption investigations and, most important, the annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine, it’s a very tall order.
And yet –
With Donald Trump in the White House, there is suddenly a ray of hope. What about a swap: Russia’s kompromat on Trump in exchange for international immunity for Putin. The way he thinks the West works, he is probably convinced Trump could make sure that he wouldn’t be prosecuted or harassed.
Meanwhile, Putin’s situation has turned really bleak. He is clearly bored with various Russian state functions and his response has been mockery and trolling. Mischief-making in the United States and Europe may amuse him for a time, but after a few initial successes, Western voters and intelligence agencies are starting to wise up to his tricks. Putin lost in the Netherlands, and France and Germany no longer look promising either. In Ukraine there is a nasty stalemate and the so-called victory in Syria rings hollow.
Going forward, Putin is facing the unenviable prospect of growing as old as Leonid Brezhnev on the job and being forced to carry on until he is carried out feet first. And that’s the best-case scenario. A hungry new generation is now growing up in Russia and they may start to bridle under the leadership of a rich geriatric. The Russian people too, can be relied upon to be sheep but only up to a point. Discontent with widespread corruption and hypocrisy is building up, as evidenced by Navalny’s growing popularity.
But here is a ready-made solution: strike a deal with a genuine corruption fighter. He will guarantee safety and wealth preservation for Putin and several powerful men in his immediate entourage in return for surrendering of power. If Navalny is intent on eradicating corruption, he would need to make an example of several top-level thieves. Medvedev looks like a perfect sacrificial lamb. He may become the first to be thrown to the wolves – and the process may already be under way.
Aside from the fact that if Navalny serves at the pleasure of his high-level protectors he has no say in the matter, a bargain like this could seem tempting to him as well. Without some kind of guarantee, there is no way Putin and his coterie will surrender power and Russia will be doomed. It will not be able to climb out of the swamp of corruption and international aggression used to keep its corrupt leaders in power.
It’s a risky strategy but if it’s true, it might work. After all, Spain and South Africa were able to turn over a new leaf – so perhaps there is hope for Russia.
