Last week Donald Trump apparently overreached himself at last. If holding military aid to Ukraine in an effort to exonerate Russia of charges of election interference and to dig up dirt on a political opponent had not been enough for Republican politicians, then the betrayal of American allies in Syria might have done the trick. Even they finally realized that allowing Recep Tayyip Erdogan to destroy the Kurds ushered in a brave new world — one in which America is ruled by a Russian asset, erstwhile American allies are dirt while two-bit strongmen are friends and allies, and the American military is on the run. It is a world in which Ukraine, too, will be surrendered to Vladimir Putin in a late-night phone call or on Twitter.
Impeachment now seems a real possibility and the return to normalcy around the corner. Even President Mike Pence will be an improvement. The key reason why former Vice President Joe Biden is still leading among Democratic presidential contenders because many Americans subconsciously believe that by electing him in 2020 the country will magically go back to a time before Trump: to 2014 or 2006, it doesn’t matter which, and the bad dream of Trumpism will be dispelled.
Except it is not a dream. You can’t elect a Trump and not pay a steep price for this kind of crime against decency, morality and common sense.
Trump grew out of the Great Recession, the severe 2007-09 financial crisis, and the worst economic debacle since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Economic hardship created resentment that colored subsequent political developments and gave rise to a populist wave. It had all been seen before: in 1933, Hitler rode the tide of popular resentment to an election victory. Once in power, he continued to stir hatred, blaming the Jews and foreigners for Germany’s problems and offering nationalism as a solution.
At the time, economic hardship and resentment were universal, affecting and infecting both sides of the Atlantic. However, the German path was by no means inevitable. Just before Hitler came to power, Americans had elected Franklin D. Roosevelt as their president. Roosevelt didn’t propose to abandon America’s democracy or free-market economy. Instead, he created a system in which prosperity was shared more equitably, opportunities were opened to the talented and ambitious regardless to what social class they came from and financial speculators were tightly regulated in order to avoid financial calamities in the future.
FDR’s reforms reinforced national unity before the crucial test of World War II — but not by eradicating dissent. Instead, he rallying support for his policies by democratic means. He also lay the foundations for postwar economic prosperity. Based on the same principles which underpinned Roosevelt’s domestic policies, the United States built a prosperous and peaceful international order and acted as its guarantor for the past seven decades. Political scientists called this system Pax America, in reference to the age of peace and prosperity in the ancient world known as Pax Romana.
It is possible to draw some superficial parallels between FDR and Trump. Both came from wealthy families in New York State and were rich. But this is where comparisons end. Roosevelt was accused by people like his bitter enemy, neighbor and fellow-American aristocrat Hamilton Fish III of betraying his social class.
Trump, meanwhile, is the very antithesis of an aristocrat. He was called, aptly, “a short-fingered vulgarian” by Spy magazine back in the 1980s. And, while Roosevelt devoted himself to public service from an early age, Trump has always been openly contemptuous of the common good.
There is one other crucial difference between FDR and Trump. FDR was elected at the height of the Depression, while Trump was preceded by Barack Obama, a gentleman and an intellectual but a weak president. Obama did three things differently from FDR. First, the financial crisis of 2008 was addressed by pouring money into the failed system, thus making sure that a new, even more dangerous bubble is inflated in the future — which has already happened. Second, Obama refused to go after the culprits of the financial crisis, giving the banks and mortgage companies who pauperized millions a slap on the wrist. Thanks to his rescue, they emerged from the debacle even richer than before. And, lastly, Obama was too nice and fearful of conflict to deal a deadly blow to his Republican critics, the way Roosevelt had done, keeping the Republicans out of power from 1932 to 1952.
During Obama’s two terms in office, income differentials widened to levels not seen since at least the introduction of income tax a century before. Resentment of those who were left behind — especially of the white blue-collar workers who were sliding out of the middle class and threatened by rising immigration — grew dramatically. The America that felt itself cheated by the globalized elites was ready to embrace someone who would disrupt the existing system.
They chose a guy who played a successful businessman on reality TV and who, despite being born to wealth, was seething with resentment and hatred against the world. Trump is a pathological character, but he jibed with the pathology of the country that voted for him.
Trump has not disappointed them. He embraced nationalism and America First rhetoric and policies, he has unleashed a torrent of petty, misspelled and ill-informed insults on everyone from political opponents and the press to foreign allies and Hollywood personalities. He has stuck a finger in the eye of American political establishment, not just the hateful politically correct Democrats but stuff-shirt Republicans as well.
He has given license to white men to be white men again and made it acceptable to express all kinds of hatreds and prejudices — against non-whites, Jews, Hispanics, immigrants, women, LGBTQ. The rhetoric against Trump’s opponents and Democrats, in general, has been increasingly violent. Trump election rallies, which he has held ever since he won the White House and at which he is becoming increasingly abusive and unhinged, are starting to resemble fascist gatherings and lynch mobs.
In any nation, there have always been fringe elements of resentment and hatred, but when a leader preaches resentment and hatred from his bully pulpit at the White House then the ranks of bigots, chauvinists and racists begin to swell.
It happened in Russia in 2012. Putin’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is a nonentity, with a personality of a slug. That was precisely why Putin chose him to hold the Russian presidency warm for him during 2008-11. Medvedev had no real power but he was relatively harmless. When Putin declared that he would return as president, however, the social climate in Russia abruptly changed. Russia became harsher, nastier, more hateful overnight — and it was noticeable not just in politics but on city streets as well, in the way ordinary people interacted with one another.
In the US, you see this on highways. Drivers have become more aggressive and rude. Highway fatalities, after staying below 11 per 100,000 population, jumped by 11% in 2015, the year Trump announced his candidacy, and by another 6% in 2016.
The late French President Francois Mitterand said that nationalism always means war. Hitler’s toxic brand of nationalism resulted in a massive military conflict and the Germans paid for it with millions of dead and the loss of one half of their territory.
The United States is a nuclear-armed military superpower. It is extremely unlikely that it could lose a major war — although after a hasty retreat in Syria, these assertions may be open to question. And Washington is already waging a war — the trade war with China. This risk to undermine the foundations of the American economy, which include cheap made-in-China goods which Beijing is lending Washington money to buy, thus supporting the dollar and the US bond market. China is also a key market to some of the most successful US multinationals.
Finally, Chinese capital flight is massive. The country had 1.6 million millionaires in 2016 and the overall investment pool measured $24 trillion, larger than the US economy. It is growing by 20% a year. This money supports stock and bond prices and real estate values in key American cities. Losing this source of funding as a result of Trump’s trade war would result in an economic catastrophe on the scale of the 1930s Great Depression.
