The reaction in Russia to the crash of its TU-154 military transport plane, which was taking artists to perform in Syria and journalists to cover the performances, clearly shows that the solution to the war in Ukraine still lies in Washington.
The plane crash was heavy with almost improbable symbolism, as though its plot had been concocted by the ancient Greeks. It was to be a repeat of last May’s concert in Palmyra, an act of mind-boggling hubris which the Gods on Mount Olympus used to frown upon. The list of the crash victims included Anton Gubankov, the author of the song “Well-Mannered Men,” which celebrated the Russian annexation of Crimea. And, not only did the crash occur on Christmas Day, but it was also the 37th anniversary of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, which marked the beginning of an end of the Soviet Empire.
Not surprisingly, few Ukrainians shed many tears for the passengers of the doomed transport. On the contrary, plenty of them openly gloated on social media. Indeed, Russia’s military adventure in Syria began as an extension of its aggression against Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin sought to acquire a major bargaining chip that was going to bring Barack Obama to the negotiating table. Initially at least Putin was hoping to trade his support for Bashir al-Assad for Washington’s recognition of the “facts on the ground” in Crimea and the lifting of sanctions. Obama showed no interest in trading and since then Russia’s involvement has acquired a logic of its own, but Ukraine and Syria are as much part of the same Russian war as the bombings of Laos and Cambodia were part of Richard Nixon’s war in Vietnam.
Neither Syrian rebels nor Ukrainian armed forces will be able to defeat the Russian military on the battlefield. The only way Russian aggression could be stopped is if pressure is applied at home or from the outside.
An overwhelming majority of Russians were outraged by Ukrainians’ reaction to the crash and attacked the few Russian journalists, bloggers and political figures who refused to mourn the death of men and women who were, to their mind, participating in the Russian war effort. Importantly, the sharpest critics came not from the Putinist circles but from members of the opposition. Essentially, it showed that the Russian people are united in their lack of understanding of the role their government has played in Ukraine and Syria and of their own complicity in their country’s wars. In other words, no domestic pressure will be applied on the Kremlin, and Putin will have a free hand to do what he wants in the foreseeable future.
This is not especially new and until now, it has been international pressure that kept Putin from raising the ante in Ukraine. With the looming inauguration of Donald Trump, things look very dark on that account as well. Even before Donald Trump has become U.S. president, the conflict in eastern Ukraine has flared up once more.
Since the start of his election campaign, Trump never tried conceal his main foreign policy objective. He is going to do exactly what Putin has wanted a U.S. president to do since annexing Crimea in February 2014: he’ll do a deal. He’ll recognize Crimea and remove U.S. sanctions in return for teaming up with Moscow in defeating ISIS. To this end, he has nominated Rex Tillerson, a buddy of Rosneft head Igor Sechin and a proud recipient of a Russian medal from Putin’s hand, as his secretary of state and Michael Flynn, a pro-Russian retired general, as his national security advisor. Such a deal will be very bad for Ukraine – and possibly fatal for its independence over the long run.
On the other hand, on the economic front, Trump will go all out to stimulate U.S. domestic fossil fuel production. He has signaled his intentions by nominating former Texas Governor Rick Perry to head his Department of Energy. Oil and natural gas prices are likely to tumble. This is going to be very good for global warming, but very bad for Russia, whose moribund economy is fully dependent on exporting fossil fuels.
Trump is probably not a Russian agent, but by every measure he is a traitor. He has murky business connections in Russia which he refuses to disclose, and possible financial obligations to Russian entities or individuals of which we know nothing since he refuses to release his tax returns. Yet, Russia is under official U.S. sanctions and Russian official media, including state-owned television stations, openly claim that Russia is at war with the United States and is fighting the Americans both in Ukraine and in Syria.
Furthermore, Trump has praised Putin, a man implicated in the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London and the shooting down of a Malaysian passenger airliner over Eastern Ukraine – ie., involved in international terrorism. His surrogates and advisors, including his own son, have met with Russians during the election campaign. He has called on the Russians to hack his opponent’s emails – which they duly did.
If you still doubt that Trump’s actions constitute a case of treason, try substituting Russia, a country with a massive nuclear arsenal which represents an existential threat to the United States, for Iran, another country under U.S. sanctions which doesn’t have nuclear weapons. If Trump had had similar dealings with Iran, praised its leaders and called on them to interfere in US elections, there is little doubt that he would have been brought up on charges of treason and might have already been shipped off to Guantanamo.
However, Trump’s treasonous behavior is his Achilles’ heel, a major weakness which Ukraine absolutely has to exploit. Kyiv should form a united front with Poland, the Baltic States, Germany and other NATO member who are concerned about Russia’s expansionism and military buildup. They should mount a massive lobbying effort in Washington, allying themselves with the Democrats, the neocons and Republican politicians like Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham who are unhappy about Trump’s Russia honeymoon. Moreover, since Russia’s actions in the Middle East have so far done much to strengthen Iran and its Shiite allies, they should also get the support of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Egypt and, possibly, even Israel.
They should keep the heat on Trump, relentlessly hounding him and publicizing his Russia connections. They should work to delay or cancel any kind of deal he would try to strike with Putin. In the meantime, Russian economy will continue to deteriorate in an environment of lower oil prices. Eventually, Putin may lose patience with his American protege and make a wrong move – which could, in the way Trump operates, transform him in Trump’s book from a “strong leader” into a “moron.” And that would be a very good thing for Ukraine.
