We don’t know yet what kind of hold Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has over Donald Trump, but we may find that out relatively soon. Directly from the horse’s mouth, i.e., from Putin himself. At some point, it may become expedient for the Kremlin to release at least some of the kompromat it holds on the current occupant of the White House.
There is no question that such kompromat exists and that Trump is beholden to Russian interests in some way. It is probably a combination of financial shenanigans, frolicking with prostitutes and conspiring with Russian intelligence to throw the U.S. presidential election his way.
Circumstantial evidence is damning. Many analysts have pointed out that Trump has attacked everyone, friend or foe, but has been remarkably restrained when it comes to talking about Russia and Putin. For a man who is so totally lacking in discipline and self-restraint, he has been sticking very close to the script whenever it comes to Putin. Even when forced to condemn Russia, he’s done so without any enthusiasm. During last week’s meeting with Germany’s Angela Merkel, Trump made no mention of Russia and its aggression in eastern Ukraine – an issue that is surely high on Merkel’s agenda.
When Russian intelligence services provided assistance to Trump’s election campaign, their goal was to wreak havoc in the US electoral system and to give hard time to Hillary Clinton, whom Putin disliked, not to get Trump elected. At the time, it seemed like an impossibly tall order.
Trump’s victory must have been as much a surprise for Putin as for everyone else. At first, the Russians couldn’t contain their joy and there were parties all over Moscow. But soon it became clear that Trump would have been much more useful to Putin as a loser in the 2016 election than as a winner. Imagine what Trump and his merry band of useful idiots would have made of his loss, claiming that the election had been rigged or stolen, that Crooked Hillary was enriching herself from the White House, that she was running a child prostitution ring, etc. It would have been hell in Washington – and it would have made Putin extremely happy.
There is a Russian proverb that says, in essence, that you’re better off losing with a smart partner at your side than winning with a fool. This is exactly the situation Putin finds himself in with Trump. Having won the election, Trump is behaving exactly as he would have if he had lost it. Instead of uniting the country and calling on everyone to work together, he has been playing to his base. He has made not just his opponents but most independent voters extremely mad. The unprecedented anger at Trump is fueling demands for investigations into Trump’s Russia connections – and the intelligence community, with whom Trump has been at war as well, will be only too happy to oblige. The Russian connection will eventually be uncovered, and the timing when it happens, as well as the kind of damage it inflicts on US-Russian relations, will be out of Moscow’s control.
So Putin may go back to the original plan – creating turmoil in American society. And what better way to do it than to release, say, the footage of Trump being urinated upon by some Russian girls?
True, having a man in the White House who is beholden to him and scared of what he may do is a tempting proposition for Putin. But it also has its drawbacks and considerable risks. It is clear that Trump won’t be able to provide sanctions relief, to recognize Putin’s land grab in Crimea and accept Russian sway over its “sphere of influence” across the former Soviet Union. In fact, given the current situation, Trump won’t be able to do even a modest deal with Putin that Clinton would have been able to negotiate – because it would be widely seen as confirmation of his treason. Trump has been forced to balance his pro-Russian cabinet-level appointments with a number of officials who view Putin’s Russia negatively. Meanwhile, Michael Flynn has lost his job as National Security Advisor and Rex Tillerson and his State Department have been sidelined.
In Party Secretary, a Soviet World War II movie, there is a scene in which a German spy manning a machine gun is forced to shoot attacking Germans in order to deflect suspicion of working for them. He ends up killing many more Germans than a Soviet machine gunner would have done. And thus Trump may have to get tougher on Russia than a president who is not suspected of colluding with the Kremlin.
And then there are Trump supporters. The diehard will continue to drink his Koolaid no matter what. But many blue-collar voters in industrial states who cast their ballots for Trump believing that he would get their high-paying manufacturing jobs back, cut their taxes, give them comprehensive health insurance and restore America’s greatness are already having second thoughts. The Gallup poll tracking Trump’s approval ratings is showing a sharp drop following the release of the disastrous TrumpCare bill.
Trump has turned the Republican party into Putin supporters. Right-wing ideologue Ann Coulter, who once wrote a book titled Treason: Liberal Treachery from the Cold War to the War on Terrorism, now blithely declares that Putin is a better ally for America than Merkel. Trump’s downfall will restore the status quo among the Republicans, reviving their suspicions of Russia. In the meantime, the scandals surrounding Trump have cast a harsh spotlight on Putin and Russia, making many ordinary Americans much more aware of the true nature of the Russian government. There will be strong support for a much tougher line on Putin in any post-Trump US administration, regardless of whether the next president is a Democrat or a Republican.
It may be a difficult decision for Putin, but if he waits much longer to release his kompromat, Trump may end up being hated so much by so many across the United States that his disgrace wouldn’t create the hoped-for disruption in American political life. People would be overjoyed to see him go. Naturally, the release of these materials won’t happen in the next few weeks or even months, but we should be prepared for this possibility some time toward the end of this year.
