A military coup in the United States? What a far-fetched idea! The US military has always been under strict civilian control and has stayed out of politics. America is no banana republic where generals strut around in peacock uniforms and tell politicians what to do.
However, over the past year and a half America has changed beyond recognition. Who could’ve imagined that a US President would lie on average three times per day, attack the free press and the judiciary and side with a foreign enemy against the CIA and the FBI? Who could’ve thought that the Republicans would gleefully punch holes in the Federal budget and embrace Russia? Whose sick mind could’ve envisioned the Evangelicals thanking the Lord for a libertine in the White House? For that matter, who could’ve predicted that Donald Trump of all people would one day become the Leader of the Free World?
Trump’s supporters have said that his removal from power would lead to an armed rebellion. Indeed, the country is sharply – and irreconcilably – split along ideological lines. Can its military long remain above the fray?
Trump has accumulated a long list of transgressions against any conceivable military code of honor. He is a Vietnam-era draft dodger who got deferrals on the spurious excuse of bone spurs. Worse, he has ridiculed the fifty thousand Americans who died in that war by comparing their sacrifice to the risk of contracting clap which he ran while philandering in New York.
Trump had the temerity to insult the parents of a fallen military hero and make fun of John McCain’s captivity in Vietnam. He is yet to find time between his self-dealing golf outings to visit US troops in the war zone. He blithely excluded transsexuals from the armed forces while immigrant soldiers, to whom a path to citizenship has been promised, are being quietly discharged from the ranks. He’s cozied up to America’s enemies and it’s not at all impossible that the Russia investigation by Robert Mueller will uncover evidence of treason.
Nevertheless, opinion polls show that Trump’s approval ratings among active members of the armed forces are considerably higher than among the general public. The generals in his Administration continue to serve – unless dismissed by the boss or indicted by Mueller. Veterans of Foreign Wars clap to his self-indulgent drivel at their convention and boo the free press at his urging.
Soldiers are taught not to think for themselves, follow orders and respect their superior officers, especially the commander-in-chief. But there is more to it than that. Trump has increased the Pentagon budget and talks of additional expenditures, such as the creation of a space force. The military loves parades of the kind Trump is staging on this year’s Veterans Day. They buy into his jingoist rhetoric, such as threats to use military force against North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, and support his demand that NATO members up their contribution to joint defense. Even his insistence that football players stand for the national anthem to honor the troops sits well with the enlisted personnel – albeit it’s only an empty gesture and a race-baiting exercise.
But there is a darker side to all this. America’s volunteer army doesn’t represent a cross-section of the population – the way citizen soldiers envisioned by the Founding Fathers would have done – but are heavily skewed toward Southern whites. The South, however, is entirely Republican. A century and a half after losing the Civil War and five decades after being forced to desegregate, it seems ready to refight the old battles. Trump’s racism, nativism and hatred of the “Yankee” establishment appeals to far too many men and women in uniform.
The rebel cause is now suddenly popular among rural and working class whites as well. A drive through Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois – the backbone of the Union Army – reveals numerous Confederate flags flying over houses.
Divisions in society have made their way into the armed forces, too, mirroring the overall ideological divide. In late 2017 a poll found that enlisted personnel are heavily pro-Trump, with his supporters making up more than half. Not so among the more educated part of the military – the officer corps. Here, Trump’s base is about as narrow as it is in the country at large, or around 35%.
Ordinarily, that wouldn’t have mattered. Naturally, soldiers and officers have always had their personal political beliefs and voted according to them, while the military as an institution remained apolitical and did what the commander-in-chief ordered them to do.
That has changed – irreversibly perhaps – at the age of Trump. Among changes wrought upon the American political landscape, perhaps the most crucial has been the politicization of law enforcement. Trump is obviously scared of what Mueller may uncover about his ties to Russia, his financial dealings with Russian oligarchs and his campaign’s collusion with Russian intelligence. To protect himself he has politicized the FBI, claiming that the investigation into his dealings with Russia were driven by the Democratic sympathies of career law enforcement professionals, thus impugning their professionalism and integrity. At the same time, he is also working on destroying the independence of the Justice Department.
The politicization is inexorably creeping into the armed forces. The civil war that is being threatened by Trump supporters could trigger a rebellion by the enlisted personnel. Racism, which has flourished under Trump, could open a massive rift between white soldiers on the one hand and their African-American and Hispanic comrades on the other, undermining the fighting spirit of the military.
Equally frightening are developments on the geopolitical arena. There is a possibility that, if Mueller starts getting too close to Trump, the President could start a war. He has already threatened Iran in an all-caps tweet in a clear attempt to deflect questions about his bizarre meeting with Putin. Trump’s ignorant self-confidence, lack of intelligence and unwillingness to listen to experts, including his generals, may drag America into a nasty conflict. His misguided confidence in his own negotiating skills could leave America without vital support from its allies.
At the start of Trump’s presidency I wrote a column predicting that his earliest actions would include a purge the US military, in which he would replace high-level generals with his loyalists and yes men.
This is what aspiring authoritarians do as a matter of course – because the armed forces are a key center of power that rivals their own. Stalin notoriously effected a brutal purge of the Soviet military. He killed off almost all larger-than-life Civil War heroes and strong, independent commanders and turned the Red Army into a docile collection of nonentities it remains to this day.
More recently, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan spent years declawing his country’s military whom he rightly saw as a threat to his power grab – and still faced a coup attempt.
American generals are starting to speak inconvenient truths. Gen. Joseph Votel, the commander of US Central Command, dismissed a suggestion that the US and Russia should work together in Syria to ensure the return of refugees. Russians complained loudly about him, claiming that he was “discrediting President Trump” since the two presidents has discussed such cooperation in Helsinki. Trump probably didn’t like it very much, either.
We’ll see whether Votel long endures in his position, but the writing on the wall is clear. Trump has already drawn a list of his enemies among retired intelligence professionals whom he is threatening to strip of their security clearance. The media has been under relentless attack by him and his followers for months, and punishment is starting to be doled out. It’s a start. A purge in the military has merely been delayed and is certainly coming – unless the military strikes first.
