Events since ISW assessed that Turkey and Russia may have reached a deal on Sept. 16 indicate negotiations faltered. Turkish forces are reinforcing their military positions in opposition-held Idlib as means of exerting pressure on Russia in order to obtain a favorable negotiated settlement. Turkey and Russia will likely continue to escalate while avoiding direct military confrontation in an attempt to gain leverage in future negotiations.
OP-ED
Andrew Greco: Turkey reinforces positions in Idlib to pressure Russia
A Turkish-Russian military convoy tows a damaged vehicle after its joint patrol was reportedly targeted on the strategic M4 highway, near the Syrian town of Urum al-Jawz in the south of the northwestern Idlib province, on August 25, 2020.
