Europeans who want to get tough with Russia must face a chilling fact: They need Russian natural gas to stay warm in the winter. About a third of the continent’s gas comes from Russia and the dramatic shutoff of flows in 2006 and 2009 showed how the country could hold Europe captive. Central to the predicament is the three-year conflict in Ukraine, through which the bulk of Russia’s supply is distributed via a Soviet-era pipeline network.

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