-Recognizing the USSR while Stalin manipulated an artificial famine on Ukraine that killed (by starvation) millions.
– Operation Keelhaul – At the end of World War II, there were approximately 5 million refugees and others from the USSR to be found in Western Europe. As part of secret protocol of the Yalta Conference the United States and Britain agreed to return all Soviet “citizens” who found themselves in their zones to the Soviet Union. This immediately affected liberated Soviet prisoners of war, 3 million who had been put into forced labor by the Nazis and a huge number of Eastern European refugees trying to escape the Soviet Union. Many were Ukrainians and the fate of the millions returned ranged narrowly from being transported to very remote regions of the USSR, to the Gulags, to death with many killed within hours (and less) of arrival back in the USSR.
– Chornobyl (the Ukrainian spelling) – to too great an extent we allowed Mikheil Gorbachev to manipulate the reality of Chornobyl after his three weeks of denials. We accepted the bogus fiction that medical aid needed to be delivered to Moscow when none aid was allowed to reach Ukraine for months, if not a full year. We knew what was going on but we played along.
– In addition, regarding Chornobyl, no pledging conference for assistance to deal with Chornobyl ever met its commitment.
– As predictable and telegraphed as any military operation could be, Vladimir Putin rolls military forces into Ukraine in violation of multiple international agreements and we stand by with “deep concerns” and warning of consequences.
And why is it we have behaved this way? It is said that we need the Kremlin – for what? And at what cost? A disgraceful legacy, shameful – when will it stop?
So, what can be done?
I am no expert but I am certainly willing to put some ideas on the table.
Any militarily option is very limited but I suggest one strongly:
I would have a carrier group in the Black Sea and I would use it to blockade Crimea (I would have had the carrier group there during the Olympics – this was all predictable and I mentioned the merits of a carrier group several times). If the Ukrainian government asked I would consider seriously assisting them somehow with enforcing a no-fly zone of flights going back-and-forth across the Russian border.
Dicey – yes. But what did we mean in the Jan. 14, 1994, US-Russia-Ukraine Trilateral Statement saying the following:
The US-Russia-Ukraine Trilateral Statement and Annex were signed on Jan. 14, 1994 in Moscow by Presidents Bill Clinton, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kravchuk…provided for security assurances by the US, Russia and United Kingdom to Ukraine on Ukraine’s accession to the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state;
What is a “security assurance”? I know what the Ukrainians thought it was and I know I am being told it doesn’t mean we would step in an protect Ukraine from invasion. So what does it mean in diplomatese? Nothing? Really? Is that our position? Frankly, given the Trilateral Statement I don’t think a blockade is particularly extreme.
One has to show genuine force to call Putin’s bluff – he will listen to nothing else.
Contemporaneously I would:
1. Demand the consultations promised in the Budapest Memorandum and the NATO Distinctive Agreement. I would demand they start immediately and in the Crimea. I would make sure I double-checked each and every other agreement we have signed with Ukraine and enforce them as well.
2. I would identify and freeze Russian assets and demand our European allies do the same – but do it unilaterally if necessary
3. If we purchase anything from Russia – stop doing so.
4. Stop agricultural sales
5. A trade embargo
6. Cut off all visa privileges
7. Indicate publicly a willingness to provide arms to the Ukrainian military and the Crimean Tartars
8. Pressure the rest of the Members to drop Russia from the G-8
9. Terminate all on-going talks and negotiations with Russia.
And I would do all of the above immediately. Putin is sending a very public message that he can do whatever he wants with impunity. He deserves a very public message that he has actually “crossed a line” and is being called on having done so.
In writing all of this I continue to acknowledge and respect the efforts of Congress – individual Members, Committees and Caucuses. I have include many statements in my Ukraine in the News series and I have more waiting for the next “issue.” However, I reprint one here, one that was prepared and sent after the President’s brief statement of Friday. I believe significantly it was signed by all but four Members of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Members Urge President Obama to Assist Peaceful, Democratic Transition in Ukraine
Warn of Russia’s “Provocative and Dangerous Tactics” that Undermine Ukraine’s Unity
WASHINGTON – In a letter to President Barack Obama, U.S. Senators Robert Menendez, D-N.J., Bob Corker, R-Tenn., John Barrasso, R-Wyo., Ben Cardin, D-Md., Richard Durbin, D-Ill., Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Edward Markey, D-Mass., John McCain, R-Ariz., Chris Murphy, D-Conn., Jim Risch, R-Idaho, Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., all members of the Foreign Relations Committee, expressed support for U.S. assistance in Ukraine and warned of Russian intervention that undermines Ukraine’s unity.
“We write in support of the administration’s efforts to help Ukraine to consolidate democratically elected government, preserve its territorial integrity, and enjoy the freedom to exercise a sovereign decision to sign and implement an Association Agreement with the European Union,” said the senators in their letter. “We are prepared to work with your Administration to reinforce your efforts by authorizing U.S. loan guarantees to Ukraine and increasing assistance to facilitate a peaceful transition of power. We also believe that the U.S. should make use of the tools at its disposal, including targeted sanctions; and asset recovery targeting corruption, to dissuade individuals who would foment unrest to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity or employ coercive economic measures against the Ukrainian people and the new Ukrainian government.”
The senators also raised concerns about “actions and rhetoric” of the Russian government “to actively undermine Ukraine’s unity” and “use provocative and dangerous tactics to extend their control on the ground.”
“We do not seek confrontation with President Putin and his government, but simply to ensure that Russia abides by its commitments and adheres to core principles of international law. A peaceful, democratic, stable, and sovereign Ukraine is in our national interest,” wrote the senators.
Full text of letter is included below and in the attached document.
Dear President Obama,
We write in support of the administration’s efforts to help Ukraine to consolidate democratically elected government, preserve its territorial integrity, and enjoy the freedom to exercise a sovereign decision to sign and implement an Association Agreement with the European Union.
The courage and determination of ordinary Ukrainians in the face of sustained repression and violence to defy an unresponsive and corrupt government has given Ukraine a chance for a better future. The United States has an important, fundamentally positive role to play. We note and welcome our Administration calling on all actors to refrain from violence to ensure the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Both Secretary Kerry and National Security Adviser Susan Rice have correctly warned Russia that military intervention in Ukraine would be a “grave mistake.”
However, through its actions and rhetoric, the Russian government is aggressively acting to exploit regional, cultural, and linguistic schisms to actively undermine Ukraine’s unity. Moscow’s goals appear to be two: destabilize the Ukrainian government while it struggles to cope with former President Yanukovych’s corrupt mismanagement of their economy; and use provocative and dangerous tactics to extend their control on the ground.
In 1994, the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia jointly signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, which committed Russia to recognize the independence, sovereignty, and existing borders of Ukraine and, explicitly, to not engage in economic coercion. The United States has a responsibility to see that these commitments are respected and to use all necessary diplomatic and, if required, punitive measures in concert with the European Union. By manipulating the price of natural gas and blocking commerce with its neighbors—including Ukraine—in contravention of its World Trade Organization obligations, Russia has already patently violated these commitments. Now it seems that Russian coercion is expanding beyond the economic sphere.
We do not seek confrontation with President Putin and his government, but simply to ensure that Russia abides by its commitments and adheres to core principles of international law. A peaceful, democratic, stable, and sovereign Ukraine is in our national interest. There must be no question about our commitment and clarity of purpose in this regard. This clarity should extend to our allies, such as Poland and Lithuania, but also partner countries like Georgia and Moldova that continue to reform themselves in a way that is in contrast to Russia’s growing domestic repression. Russian foreign policy too often relies on the use of intimidation and fear to achieve its aims, as exhibited by Russia’s provocative actions along Ukraine’s border in recent days.
We are prepared to work with your Administration to reinforce your efforts by authorizing U.S. loan guarantees to Ukraine and increasing assistance to facilitate a peaceful transition of power. We also believe that the U.S. should make use of the tools at its disposal, including targeted sanctions; and asset recovery targeting corruption, to dissuade individuals who would foment unrest to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity or employ coercive economic measures against the Ukrainian people and the new Ukrainian government.
We are gravely concerned about the future of Ukraine and are committed to working with you to support a peaceful political transition that serves the interests of the Ukrainian people who have demanded that their voices be heard.
Bob McConnell is a co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation in Washington, D.C.
