It depends on how
top-level decisions are made. By the end of the first week in April it appeared
that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has decided to try his Crimea tactic for
size in eastern Ukraine.
Pro-Russian mobs, guided by infiltrators from Russia
(who looked very professional in news media), violently seized a number of
government buildings and police stations in several eastern cities,
overwhelming thesecurity services and capturing weapons.
Attempts by government forces to recapture the buildings
very likely would lead to a shooting confrontation and possibly a pretext for
Russian troops to move from across the border. Mr. Putin then could manipulate
this scenario in a westward move as far as he considers manageable. This could
lead to pealing off major parts of Ukraine’s territory.