The Russian naval base in Sevastopol on the Crimea made me
recall the above mentioned show of ingenuity. After all, in Sevastopol they
have a bunch of naval ships described in the last 20 years as rusting junk, but
now made appear like a power house, and showing lots of political hey.
Not only that. Russia’s recent occupation of Crimea probably
was planned as the first step in a military assault on Ukraine — or
as an option depending on the level of anti-Kyiv turmoil that can be generated
in Ukraine’s eastern cities. The optimum scenario would be to overrun most of
Ukraine, capture Kyiv, and install a puppet government.
Russian media today are orchestrating brazen lies — the kind exuded from Berlin radio just
before the Nazi onslaught on Poland in 1939
— this time accusing Ukraine’s new government of mistreating ethnic
Russians, calling the government illegitimate and ruled by extremists.
But Russian domination over Ukraine would also create a huge
problem for Europe, a much bigger one than the European Union is willing to
openly admit. It would also become a dilemma for the USA. Not just hesitation
between visa bans and “possible future penalties” including sanctions on
Russian banks and asset freezes that are now presumably contemplated.
Europe is already hooked on Russian gas. If Russia overruns
Ukraine, Europe will have to coexist with a real and more aggressive Russian
empire than it was in the last twenty years. The European Union will be pressed
to yield to new demands from Russia. Think of Poland and Baltic states.
Remember that Adolf Hitler had assured Neville Chamberlain that swallowing
Czechoslovakia was his last grab in Europe.
It must not be assumed that Mr. Putin is a cool cat who
behaves rationally and is not driven by delusionary visions of glorious destiny
of Russian civilization, distinct from “corrupt West”, or that such visions are
not shared by many who elected him president. Actually, Mr. Putin is on record
of sporting such views, and at the same time is seen in Russia as being more
moderate than Russia’s most politicians. It is no wonder that 58.8 percent of
Russians support moving their military forces into Ukraine, according to latest
poll shown on ipress.ua/news website. Only 20 are against.
What Putin shares with most Russians is the belief that an
intrinsic sphere of Moscow’s power must be reclaimed as it was in the time of
its greatness, such as when Russia was ruled by Catherine the Great, broadly
speaking, and then some. It is no coincidence that Putin spoke of the demise of
the Soviet Union as the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th
century. Not the devastating wars, not the Holocaust, not Ukraine’s Holodomor
in which millions had died from an artificially made hunger, but the collapse
of the Soviet state, Russia’s pride.
If anyone thinks the EU will live and prosper when Ukraine
falls, think again. The right question is how far the EU would be willing to
yield before asking the United States for military help. By definition,
Europe’s problem becomes America’s problem when the chips are down, as it was
in World War I and II. Europe and America are joined at the hip, despite the
Pentagon talk of “focus on China”. Make no mistate about it.
And yet, the kind of assistance the West has given Ukraine
against Russia’s military aggression is mostly talk. US President
Barack Obama is telling Russia’s President Putin that Russia has
violated international law by invading Ukraine. Mr. Putin gives an Orwellian
reply that the new government in Kyiv is illegal. More conversations are
promised.
Western media are reporting “a tense situation”. Edward Luce wrote in his Financial Times
commentary, Match 3, that “Putin cooks up Obama’s chicken Kiev moment”. He has
suggested that Obama should warn Putin against embarking on “a course of
suicidal imperialism”.
Ukraine’s standing army is much smaller than Russia’s. But
with mobilization of army reserves now underway, it can put up a good fight. It
needs help mainly in air defense. Putin may be miscalculating by trying to
resurrect a grand empire. Ukraine today is not what it was a hundred years ago.
It had lost its autonomy from Russia in the 18th century during
Catherine’s reign, after uniting with Russia by a treaty in 1654. Its revived national conscience now is a
factor apparently ignored in the Kremlin. Its resonance was loud at Maidan in
Kyiv this winter in the uprising against pro-Russian dictatorial regime.
NATO is showing some signs of life by engaging in training
support for Ukrainian army and bolstering its weaponry. The US is flying a
dozen F-16 fighter jets over Lithuania and Poland, both Ukraine’s NATO member
neighbors. Much more is needed. For instance, why not send a US aircraft
carrier into Black Sea?
Coming back now to my movie-making story, think of America’s
18 or 20 mighty aircraft carriers, most of them of latest make. Were they built
to scare Japan or China? Or to be
deployed in some backyard swimming pool in Hawaii? Or simply to make huge profits for the
military-industrial establishment?
Boris Danik is a retired Ukrainian-American living in North Caldwell, New Jersey
