Time for such planning was when attention of leaders and
followers was uniformly distracted by surreal and lengthy negotiations between
the Yanukovych government and the European Union. It looked like a sure and
fairly easy way into the clovers. As flagged by some, such expectations turned
out to be a deception by the regime in power in Kyiv.
A successful revolution requires defections from the
military and/or security services — as
was the case during the Orange Revolution, which more or less went in
accordance with the script. Mass protests were the spark that ignited it, but
success was assured only when key power
brokers had forced a deal between President Kuchma and the opposition leaders,
including cancellation (soon signed by judges in long robes) of fraudulent
election win by Viktor Yanukovych in 2004.
If anyone learned a lesson from 2004 it was Viktor
Yanukovyvh. The security forces are now intimidated so that their switching of sides
is not in the cards. And no one among high military brass has shown wavering or
intent “to defend the people” — as was the case during the Orange Revolution
at that stage when crowds swelled to half-million and more.