Yes, you do  — if
something is expected in return. In the 1960s, the United States was adamant it
will not negotiate with the Vietcong, and yet it did at the end, as well as
with Hanoi. The French vowed never to talk to the Algerian National Liberation
Front, and yet Charles de Gaulle, president of France made peace and ended the French
rule in North Africa.

The Donbas is no Vietnam or Algeria. But it has Russia that
provides weapons and money to the militants and makes their rhetoric loud.
President Putin said he wants Ukrainian security forces to leave the rebel
territory, but what he really wants is a continuing military confrontation in
Donbas between Kyiv and the militants until a deal is reached between Kyiv and
Moscow on Kremlin’s terms about Ukraine’s subordination to Russia.

That deal would be such that Donbas will stay in Ukraine,
but Kyiv would give away the farm so that Ukraine become a vassal state.
Moscow, of course holds the cards, besides using Donbas as a subterfuge.
Economic pressure, for instance, notably the gas supply (much of it going to
Donbas).

Western commentators anticipate something of that sort,
despite US President Obama sending hearty congratulations for Ukraine’s
elections on May 25. Writes The New York Times: “The Kremlin’s main goal is to
maintain its influence over Ukraine by whatever means necessary, but ideally through
strong regional autonomy of its regions” (“In Russia, tone changes about leader
in Ukraine”, May 26, 2014).

Timothy Ash in Kyiv Post (May 25) stresses the same point: “Russia
made it clear that no new administration in Kyiv can succeed without dealing
with Russia, and taking into account its main interests” (“After the vote, what
now?”).

Yes, it does sound gloomy, but why? It is because Russia
holds the initiative. But what if Ukraine ignores what Russia wants, and is not
rushing into talks?

Kyiv must talk to Moscow if it wants to get Donbas back.
This is as clear as a day. And the minute Ukraine’s presidents promises to
charge into Donbas, he is on the hook. This obvious reality should get through
somebody’s head in Kyiv. Ukraine needs Donbas like a spike in a wheel. Less
Donbas also means less Russian gas import.

If president-elect Poroshenko is moving down the path of
assuring Ukraine’s “unity” by talking to Russia, as he seems to be doing,
Ukraine is on the way of becoming another copy of Yanukovych presidency.

And what about Poroshenko’d promise “to move quickly into
association agreement with the European Union?”.  That’s the promise Viktor Yanukovych made,
too, at one time.  Meanwhile, Putin has
already removed curbs on Poroshenko’s chocolate business in Russia.  

Boris Danik is a retired Ukrainian-American living in North Caldwell, New Jersey.