It is mainly about freezing private accounts of villains in
Western banks and refusing travel visas. These measures apparently would do no
harm to the Ukrainian people. It does
sound neat, but actually it would be unlikely to shake up the power, wealth and
the good life of oligarchs.
They will continue to own Ukraine, with their holdings of
industrial and commercial assets, which they grabbed in the 1990s. The balance
of payments for Ukraine as a country derives from foreign trade, which means
exports of products made in Ukraine in plants owned by oligarchs. Payments from
abroad are made to companies that make the goods, usually not to individual
owners of these outfits (sometimes with concealed identities), and are
deposited in accounts of these companies in Ukraine and abroad.
The effects of sanctions are puny, unless the whole
industries are targeted — as in Iran,
for instance. Who says that it would do no harm to Ukraine as a country?
The oligarchs play for much, much bigger stakes than travel
to the Champs Elysees. Until now they had been grossly reluctant to get
involved with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They preferred
to independently boss Ukraine, jointly with Yanukovych, and to
keep some distance from Russia. But everything has changed drastically when it
became obvious in 2013 that Ukraine is headed for an economic crash very soon,
in which case the oligarchs could lose their hides.
To make a long story short, they needed to ensure their
survival as the dominant power in Ukraine, and quickly. They weighed the European Union vs. Russia. The bailout from Russia seemed more reassuring, albeit with strings
attached. The incentive for Yanukovych was the same, and they went for it,
even though it delayed the reckoning for only about 18 months.
Focus on sanctions would deflect attention from actions and
planning that could actually mean something. This seems to be part of the
discussion that includes speculation how the West can help Ukraine. But it can
never match what Ukrainians could and should do to help themselves.
Boris Danik is a retired Ukrainian-American living in North Caldwell, New Jersey.
