Maybe the future is not as bleak for Ukraine as it seems under U.S. President Donald Trump. His election brings trepidation in this nation because of his inexplicable reverence for Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin dictator who many justifiably consider as a war criminal and who is public enemy No. 1 in Ukraine.
Two positive developments took place over the weekend.
One is that U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (Democrat-New York) and U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin (Democrat-Maryland) will introduce legislation this week to ensure that the president cannot reduce sanctions against Russia without congressional approval. Schumer told ABC-TV journalist George Stephanopoulos that he had the backing of two key Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, in the Congress.
Enacting this law would be a terrific development. Getting it passed is something that Ukrainians and their supporters in America can rally around for a lobbying campaign in Washington, D.C., to see who is with them and who is against them. In other words, a golden opportunity has presented itself.
“That would be horrible” Schumer said of the prospect floated by Trump to cancel sanctions against Russia in exchange for nuclear arms reduction — a prospect that ignores the reason sanctions were imposed in the first place, namely, Russia’s war against Ukraine that has killed 10,000 people since 2014. Ukraine lost control of Crimea and a large part of the Donbas because of Russia’s unending aggression.
“For us to repeal sanctions, given what Russia has done in Ukraine and threatened the Baltics and, now, they have clearly tried to intervene in our election– whether it had an effect or not, that is something — that’s a danger that we have never faced to this extent in American history,” Schumer told Stephanopoulos.”
If “we repeal sanctions, it tells Russia, go ahead and interfere in our elections and do bad things; it tells China, it tells Iran. That would be terrible. So this legislation, I hope, will get bipartisan support,” Schumer said.
Separately, according to Bloomberg News, Graham told CBS News that he believes a bill for additional sanctions on Russia would get more than 75 votes in Senate. “There’s bipartisan belief that the Russian interfered in our election,” Bloomberg quoted Graham as saying.
The second positive development is that Russia hawks, such as McCain, have confidence in the national security team that Trump has assembled — Rex Tillerson as secretary of state, James Mattis as secretary of defense, John F. Kelly as director of homeland security, Dan Coats as director of national intelligence and Michael Flynn as national security adviser.
“We need more sanctions against Russia,” McCain said. “We should not relax them…if we don’t keep those sanctions on and even increase them, it will encourage Vladimir Putin, who is a war criminal.”
He said that he believes the advisers around Trump, including Tillerson, the former ExxonMobil CEO who accepted an Order of Friendship Award from Putin and has close ties in Putin’s inner circle, understand the threat posed by Russia and the need for a strong and steadfast response.
Timothy Ash, a London-based senior sovereign strategist with Bluebay Asset Management, clearly saw the developments the way that I do — hopeful for Ukraine, a nation that needs all the hope it can get.
“Clearly Trump faces a weight of Russia hawks in Congress, on both sides of the house. And the question is whether he would want to go against this, so early in his term in office, and where Russia is not a huge priority issue for him. Is it worth fighting Congress over this, and especially when opinion polls show widespread popular unease over Putin’s regime?” Ash writes.
For Ukraine’s sake, and for the sake of global stability, let’s hope not. I am among those who believe that easing up on Russia at this stage will give the Kremlin a green light for more war in Ukraine and elsewhere, and also undermine the West’s credibility to deter future aggressors.
