Brian Bonner: Ukraine on verge of losing 20 percent of its nation

Now the Russian-backed insurgents and separatists remain on the offensive and on the verge of
taking over Donetsk Oblast, with not insignificant support of the local population. Probably the majority still oppose this takeover, but it’s hard to argue with masked green men pointing automatic rifles at you.

Our journalists on the ground said that it’s going
to be extremely difficult for Ukraine’s military to retake cities such as Sloviansk, a district outpost of 120,000 people, where
Russian soldiers have given citizens hundreds of Kalashnikovs to
defend themselves — or shoot anybody coming from Kyiv.

The same sort of arming of civilians appears to be going on
in many locations of the oblast, which is home to 4.5 million people, 10 percent
of Ukraine’s population of 45 million people.

So, add up
Crimea, with up to 2.2 million people, and now Donetsk Oblast, and Ukraine has
lost 15 percent of its nation.

Next,
Luhansk Oblast is very vulnerable, sitting on the far eastern edge of the
nation will a long border with Russia. That’s another 5 percent of the
population, or 2.2 million people.

Altogether, we’re talking about nearly 9 million out of 45 million people – 20 percent of the nation lost — including its industrial
heartland and its peninsula surrounded by two seas.

Despite official denials, it appears that Ukraine is adopting a military and police strategy to secure the nation’s borders only as far east as Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporyzhia oblasts. Some privately fear that Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are lost for now, along with Crimea, which was annexed in March by the Russian Federation. A strong military and police response, however, could still roll back the Kremlin-backed insurgents.

This is a
staggering loss, and has even led to unconfirmed and officially denied reports that Ukraine has decided to pull
back its easternmost military defense of the nation to a north-south line running
from Kharkiv to Dnipropetrovsk and then Zaporizhyia oblasts.

And still,
Ukraine’s borders with Russia are not closed completely. Ukrainian companies
are still doing business with Russia. And the interim Ukrainian government has lost much
credibility in failing to launch – or not wanting to launch – a military
crackdown, despite promising one since April 11.

As former
Security Service of Ukraine chief Igor Smeshko said: “Russia will go as far as
we let them.”

This is
pretty far, it appears.

Too many in the nation, it is clear, are living as if
nothing is happening or they remain indifferent and defeatist. Others, although a distinct minority, support the Russian
invasion. 

It is still a safe bet that most Ukrainians will fight, if given the
means.

But with each passing day and loss of territory, it
looks as if the West is not going to ride to the rescue. U.S. President Barack
Obama still says he’s not going to arm Ukrainians.

The United
States and European Union applied such puny sanctions after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
Crimean invasion that he felt emboldened to go after Ukraine’s largest oblast.
And there’s still no reason for him to stop his march westward.

The West
keeps issuing meaningless statements of grave concern and warning Russia not to
go any further, otherwise, next time they’ll get tough. And they expect Russia and the rest of the world to take them seriously.

How far west
do Russian forces have to go before the democratic West starts helping Ukraine defend
itself from the mlitaristic revival of Russia?

To the Golden Gates of Kyiv? To Lviv? To the border with Poland?

Kyiv Post chief editor Brian Bonner can be
reached at [email protected]