It has not even been two years since Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine. Yet he is paying his fourth visit to Turkey this weekend.

On the last working visit, to Istanbul on Oct. 16-17, 2020, the defense industry and security were the focus of his visit.

This time, Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will co-chair the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, established by the two countries in 2011 and celebrating its 10th anniversary this year.

Ukraine-Turkey foreign trade has not diminished despite the pandemic

To understand this visit much better, it is best to interpret the conditions and developments correctly. 2020 was a year when relations between Turkey-Ukraine peaked in every field. Official delegations between the two countries increased even above the level of 2019, despite the epidemic and although there was 7% less the countries’ total foreign trade. Yet there was no decrease in bilateral trade between Turkey and Ukraine. More than 1 million Ukrainian tourists visited Turkey in 2020 and compared to the same period, from July 1, when the tourism season starts in Turkey, Dec. 31, 2019, there was an increase in the number of tourists from Ukraine. Likewise, in 2020, in the number of tourists that visited Ukraine by airways, Turkey ranked first with 149,000 persons.

Ukraine ranks second among countries in projects undertaken by Turkish construction companies in 2020

The Ukrainian leadership, giving utmost priority to the renovation of the deficient and outdated infrastructure in the last year, has covered a significant distance in constructions of roads and bridges and other infrastructure fields that touch the lives of ordinary citizens and that make their lives better.

Under Zelensky’s Great Construction program, 5,500 kilometers of roads were reconstructed. This year, the target is to renovate 6,800 kilometers of roads and 150 bridges.

These investments stir up the economy and improve communication and transportation between the cities. They support trade and domestic tourism. Turkey has 46 firms among the 250 largest international construction contractors of the world. Given Ukraine’s closeness as a neighbor, Turkish firms have already contributed to the superstructure and infrastructure of Ukraine since the 1990s, with involvement in more than 200 construction projects worth more than $7 billion. Turkish firms have given the largest support for the Great Construction program among foreign construction companies. That’s why, in 2020, Ukraine ranked second among nations in Turkish construction projects.

In 2020, Turkey was the largest foreign capital investor in Ukraine

In 2020, during which foreign capital stock has decreased in Ukraine, Turkey was the largest foreign capital investor. Turkish investments were valued at $400 million. Turkish investments in the country now exceed $3.5 billion and the number of Turkish firms which conduct operations in Ukraine has reached 700.

The renewable energy sector is the star sector, where Turkish investments are the most active in Ukraine in recent years. Just in this sector, Turkish investments have exceeded $400 million and new investments in the amount of $250 million are in the pipeline. It is a fact that invoices could not be paid as a result of difficulties encountered in the overall economy and in the sector after COVID-19. This has caused a crisis in the sector.

However, Turkish investors mainly find the Ukrainian government’s approach in this matter as constructive and sincere. Turkish investors in the renewable energy sector are the leading holdings of Turkey. Energy is only one of the areas they invest in. Payment of unpaid debts according to a certain schedule, as well as compliance with the payment process of new invoices in accordance with the laws and rules, shall pave the way for new investments to be made by these companies in Ukraine. This, in turn, will give confidence to the companies that will make long-term investments in public-private partnerships.

Ukraine will use public-private partnerships more frequently in its infrastructure investments, mainly for hospitals

Ukraine’s investments in its infrastructure are increasing. But now it is very difficult for the country to realize these investments in a short time with its budget. Therefore, the public-private partnership, or PPP, model will play a significant role in the infrastructure investments Ukraine will make, such as roads, hospitals, bridges, ports, airports, in the forthcoming years.

In the last 20 years, Turkey has received more than $150 billion in investments by this model. It has realized giant projects.

In this visit, there shall be the opportunity to examine more closely the experiences and the know-how of Turkey in this field. As a matter of fact, in November 2020, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal made one of his rare visits abroad to Turkey. The focus of the visit was PPP and how Turkish companies can contribute to the infrastructure projects that shall be realized in Ukraine by this model.

Zelensky’s host, Erdoğan, has made large investments in the transportation infrastructure of Turkey since he came to power, first as prime minister in 2003 and then as president in 2014. He has also led health system reform and spurred hospital investments. Turkey, with its strengthened health system, is now among the world’s top five nations in health tourism. The health system in Turkey and its competent and devoted health personnel proved to be a great advantage in combating the coronavirus pandemic. Examining Turkey’s experiences in the field of health, mainly the city hospitals constructed by PPP, will be on Zelensky’s agenda. In particular, it is important to attract the financing, investment and organizational competence of Turkish investors to Ukraine. Zelensky has already covered significant ground in Ukraine’s transportation infrastructure and has put forward his action plan to solve the road problem by 2023.

Free trade agreement to at least double mutual trade and investments

Last week, Shmyhal, when he met representatives of the Turkish business community for the fourth time in Kyiv, started his speech by indicating that signing the Turkey Ukraine Free Trade Agreement is the most important point in their agenda. And, the Turkish-Ukrainian Business Forum, which gathered in Kyiv under the chairmanship of Zelensky and Erdoğan on Feb. 3, 2020, became the highest-attended bilateral business forum in the history of Ukraine. At the event, both presidents pledged to sign the free trade agreement. Zelensky made the same pledge on his visit to Istanbul in October.

There is no reason for not having the free trade agreement signed this year. It was first considered in 1998. Negotiations started in 2007, with official talks launching in 2011. Upon signing of the free trade agreement, we will see in Ukraine many Turkish industrial facilities conducting activities in the field of manufacturing in Ukraine and exporting products manufactured by them to many places in the world.

When visas were removed between Turkey and Ukraine in 2011, I remember that sections of society objected that these may give rise to unemployment in our countries. Indeed, we have altogether observed that those decisions, which could be considered bold according to conditions of that day, have paved the way for many other opportunities. That convergence of two countries has had positive impact on the wealth of the people as well.

There are many historical, geographical, geopolitical, commercial and economical reasons which bring Turkey and Ukraine closer to each other.

In the first 20 years of Ukraine’s independence, we could observe this natural convergence completely. Indeed, the establishment of the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council between the two countries, the removal of the visas between two countries, and the agreement on travel without passport signed between Turkey and Ukraine in 2017 have been all achieved as a result of this natural ecosystem.

With all GUAM countries, which consist of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, Turkey has agreements on travel without passport, with Georgia since December 2012, with Ukraine since June 2017, with Moldova since February 2019 and finally, with Azerbaijan since April 1, 2021.

In a sense, a “mini-Schengen” zone is formed in the Black Sea and Caspian Basin. Convergence among all these countries is great attainment for the conversion of the Black Sea into a sea and region of peace, stability and wealth. Likewise, Turkey has free trade agreements with Moldova, with Romania and Bulgaria which have shores to the Black Sea, via the Customs Union with the European Union, and with Georgia as well. Turkey and Ukraine are both big countries. Their total population exceeds 120 million. In tourism, mutual travels, investments, energy and construction sectors, they are getting closer to each other with double steps, in recent years.

The missing link is the free trade agreement and this visit by Zelensky is a great opportunity to finalisz this issue at this time. Zelensky’s visit to Turkey this weekend will be, undoubtedly, a historic visit, at which new firsts shall be experienced in the relations of two countries.

The Turkey-Ukraine High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, which shall be held for the 10th time, brings Turkey and Ukraine even closer to each other in many fields such as trade, investments, energy, defense, aviation, tourism, construction, and infrastructure.

Burak Pehlivan is chairman of the International Turkish-Ukrainian Business Association.