If opposition leaders are still in prison, that is going to create a negative atmosphere for the Summit
UNIAN: Mr Ambassador, EU-Ukraine Summit is planned for 19 December. If the Association Agreement is initialled, does it mean that the EU is inconsistent in its statements?
Leigh Turner: First of all it’s important to distinguish between the three stages of approving the Association Agreement. The first stage is to initial the agreement. If both sides work very hard and, in particular, if we can agree an acceptable formulation on whether or not and when Ukraine might join the European Union, it’s possible that we could have the initialling before the end of the year. So then it might be possible to conclude the negotiations. That would be a good thing.
But the Association Agreement won’t enter into force and will have a zero effect on Ukraine, until it is signed. So being signed is the second stage. That will definitely not happen for at least six months after the negotiations are concluded. And in order for that to happen, all the Member States of the European Union must decide that Ukraine is a democratic country and is working in a democratic way. So it will be great if we can initial the agreement before the end of the year, but what we really need to do is to get in signed, so it begins to work.
After it’s signed, it has to be ratified. So the third stage is the ratification, and that has to be done by the parliaments of the EU Member States and the European Parliament. The EU Member States will ratify the agreement only if they are confident that Ukraine can play by the rules of the European Union.
If opposition leaders, who have been detained as the result of what we consider to be politically motivated trials, are still in prison, that is not going to create a good atmosphere for the Summit on 19 December.
UNIAN: That is, the atmosphere of the Summit will depend on the Ukrainian authorities?
Leigh Turner: The EU has made absolutely clear that if opposition leaders detained as the result of flawed trials are still in detention and are unable to take part in the political activity, it’s very unlikely that the Association Agreement will be signed and ratified – that’s stages two and three of approving the Agreement.
UNIAN: What, in your opinion, prevents the Ukrainian authorises from taking this opportunity and coming to the stage of signing the Agreement? Is it fear of Yulia Tymoshenko or something else?
Leigh Turner: I think you have to ask them that question. I think that the way in which the EU works is very clear. We are a rules-based organisation. And all those rules are set out in EU treaties and are legally binding obligations. So if a country wants to have an association agreement with the EU, it knows what it has to do. It’s not that the EU is setting new tough conditions. These are the same rules for everybody.
UNIAN: What will the level of the Summit be?
Leigh Turner: I can’t answer the details of exactly who will be here, but usually a Summit is held at the top level.
Once the Association Agreement and DCFTA are signed and ratified, you will start seeing the economy being transformed
UNIAN: Much time has passed since the verdict of Yulia Tymoshenko, and if at the beginning there was some hope for decriminalisation or some other way of resolving the situation, then now any such hope has gone. What, in your opinion, Ukraine will look like, if Yulia Tymoshenko won’t run at the 2012 parliamentary elections? We now understand that the signing of the Agreement is unlikely…
Leigh Turner: I would say that this is the question which all of Ukraine must ask itself. What kind of country does it want to be? Does it want to be an EU-type country or something else?
In my view, the Association Agreement, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, has the potential to transform Ukraine. I know it’s very difficult to change a whole country. That’s why the Association Agreement and DCFTA are so important, because they bring with them a huge number of mechanisms to help reform the country. They also come with a structure of financial assistance in order to make those changes. So once you have the Association Agreement and DCFTA signed and ratified, you will start seeing the economy being transformed.
It will be great to see that, but it’s unlikely to happen if opposition leaders are sitting in prison as a result of trials which are not based purely on legal factors.
UNIAN: You attended the opposition leaders trials, including Tymoshenko’s and Lutsenko’s. Didn’t you feel some absurdity?
Leigh Turner: I wrote a blog a few weeks ago entitled “Why European governments think opposition trials are flawed”, in which I drew attention to the reports of Mr Lyngbo of the Danish Helsinki Committee for Human Rights, which give a thorough analysis of all the trials and set out a number of areas where they don’t meet normal legal practice. I’d recommend having a look at those reports (and reading my blog).
This is within the power of the authorities in Ukraine to resolve very quickly
UNIAN: After the verdict there have been a lot of critical statements from all leading countries in the world, including the UK. Such strong statements have been heard, perhaps, for the first time in the history of Ukraine. But why have no sanctions been applied e.g. freezing bank accounts of the Ukrainian authorities, oligarchs, who in many ways determine the country’s political situation? So the statements will remain just the statements?
Leigh Turner: If other countries or organisations, such as the EU, are concerned about what’s happening in another country, there are a range of options to respond to that. And certainly we are continuing to consider all options. But now we consider that most people in Ukraine and the authorities in Ukraine, from what they have been saying, are keen to proceed with the Association Agreement.
So that’s where we’ve been focusing our discussion. What happens in future will depend on which direction Ukraine is going. I should say I am always optimistic. And the door is open for Ukraine if steps are taken to resolve the situation with the opposition leaders who are in detention. I am confident that this is within the power of the authorities in Ukraine to resolve very quickly.
UNIAN: Many people think that the Ukrainian leadership tries to follow Russians. Do you have the same impression?
Leigh Turner: Again, that’s really a question you have to ask them, not me. I’ve read many statements by the Ukrainian authorities, and they’ve always said they want to make Ukraine more like the countries of the EU. And my impression is that that what most people in Ukraine want. But ultimately this is the question for Ukrainian people. Nobody is telling Ukraine how to behave; it’s that if they want to be part of Europe, the rules are clear.
Ukraine was downgraded to “Partly Free” country
UNIAN: Is Ukraine becoming more like Russia in terms of democracy?
Leigh Turner: Over the last 5-7 years, Ukraine made big steps forward in terms of democracy. And for a number of years Ukraine was considered the most democratic country in the former Soviet Union, apart from the Baltic States. And although we’ve seen some deterioration in the democratic situation in Ukraine, it is still more democratic than most other countries of the former Soviet Union.
But that doesn’t mean that we are not concerned about the steps backwards that we’ve seen. And if we look, for example, at the ratings of the US-based organisation Freedom House, we can see that Ukraine was downgraded in their most recent report. Now Ukraine is rated alongside Moldova in the ‘Partly Free’ category. So we will be watching that and other evidence very closely.
Peo ple are deeply concerned about the problem of corporate raiding across the country
UNIAN: I know that you travel a lot around Ukraine e.g. recently you visited Zaporizhia, where the Stalin monument has been erected. How do you make sense of why this happened for yourself?
Leigh Turner: I didn’t see the Stalin monument and I am not a historical expert. But I don’t think I would be contributing to any proposals to build statues of Stalin anywhere.
I always try to travel widely in Ukraine, so that I don’t just see what’s happening in Kyiv. Just recently I’ve been in Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Odesa. I do receive a fairly consistent message from all of those places that people are very concerned about the business environment and, in particular, the problem of corporate raiding.
I would interpret this as when commercial interests, which are close to the authorises, are able to use those links to use organs of the state, such as organs of security or the courts, to put pressure on their competitors. This is a problem which applies both to foreign and Ukrainian businesses. In the last six months I’ve been hearing some really terrible stories, which make me feel that this is a major threat to the economic development of Ukraine.
UNIAN: How about the British business? What trends do you register – are British businesses leaving Ukraine or, visa versa, British investment is growing?
Leigh Turner: There are many British businesses which are successful and active in Ukraine. Recently, an agreement was signed between (Dutch-British company) Shell to invest between $200-800m in the development of gas in Ukraine.Britain is one of the biggest investors in Ukraine. But at the moment I am afraid I am hearing of a number of British companies who have had serious problems with corporate raiding.
Often I approach the authorities to ask for help in these cases. And often the Ukrainian authorities can help to resolve these problems. But the issue is not individual cases. The issue is a systemic problem which affects the whole of the Ukrainian economy. And if this problem is not tackled, the effect on inward investment and on the whole economy will be serious.
To give you an example, consider the very important and welcome potential investment by Shell of between $200-800m. How quickly this money will be spent (I can’t speak for Shell) will no doubt depend on how good the cooperation is with the authorities. If conditions are good and if there is the rule of law, we will expect to see that money spent quickly. And I would expect to see more, much bigger investments in future.
Energy companies in the West always say to me that they would like to invest billions of dollars in Ukraine and that Ukraine should be a gas exporter, not a gas importer. But unless the investment climate improves, that’s going to be a very slow process.
UNIAN: That is, you have to deal with this in your capacity of the ambassador?
Leigh Turner: It’s my job to try and encourage inward investment into Ukraine, so I really want to have the best possible conditions to make that happen.
UNIAN: You can speak Ukrainian quite well. Do you take lessons of Ukrainian?
Leigh Turner: I was fortunate when I arrived in Ukraine that I already spoke reasonable Russian, because I was posted in Moscow in the 1990s, and it was clear to me that it was important that I spoke Ukrainian as well.
So I began by taking one lesson a week for six months. Then I went to Lviv and lived with a Ukrainian family for two weeks. I had four hours of Ukrainian every day. I insisted on only speaking Ukrainian for those two weeks. And that was helpful for me to make some progress. But I wish my Ukrainian was better.
Ukraine’s integration with the EU is good for Russia, and above all for Ukraine itself
UNIAN: Russia held elections to the State Duma… Russia’s presidential elections are also looming, and Putin will again become the president. In your opinion, will anything change in Ukraine-Russia relations after Putin become the president again?
Leigh Turner: I can’t really comment on the Russian elections, because that’s a question for my colleagues in Moscow. But I think that it’s in the interests of Ukraine and Russia to have stable relations. I would say that the most important concept for looking at relations between the countries of the former Soviet Union is the concept of what we call ‘win-win’ relations.
This means that if something is good for country A it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s bad for country B. Rather, it can be good for country A and country B. If Ukraine, for example, integrates with the EU and becomes more prosperous, more democratic and more stable, in my opinion, that’s good for Ukraine and good for its neighbours in the rest of the former Soviet Union.
UNIAN: But Russia doesn’t think so.
Leigh Turner: Well, I can’t speak about what Russians think. In my view a Ukraine which is prosperous, democratic and integrated with the EU is positive for everybody, both Ukraine and all of Ukraine’s neighbours, whether in East or West.
UNIAN: You say that you travel around Ukraine a lot and see that most Ukrainians want to move closer to the EU. And how, from your observations, would you portray a common Ukrainian – what are his/her concerns? Is life good for them?
Leigh Turner: I always make comparison between developments in Ukraine in the last 20 years and the development of some countries of Eastern Europe which have been more integrated into the EU. And if we look, for example, at Poland, which 20 years ago had a standard of living which was similar to that of Ukraine, we see that now, 20 years later, Poland has an economy which is roughly three times as big as that of Ukraine, even though Poland is a smaller country.
If you look at the difference in gross size of the two economies, it’s about $330bn a year. That is, in 2010 Poland’s GDP was $470bn and that of Ukraine $137bn. That, for me, is the prize which is waiting for Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine has far more resources and better agriculture and, arguably, more potential than Poland. I think people in Ukraine, from what they tell me, sometimes would like to see slightly faster progress in the European direction. Interviewers: Oksana Klymonchyuk, Volodymyr Ilchenko, UNIAN
Leigh Turner has been the British Ambassador to Ukraine since June 2008. You can read all his blog entries at blogs.fco.gov.uk/roller/turnerenglish (in English) or blogs.fco.gov.uk/roller/turner/ (Ukrainian)
