Significance
Unprecedented street protests took place in Moscow and St Petersburg on 5 December, disputing the victory of the ruling United Russia (ER) party and calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who plans to return to the presidential seat, potentially for 12 years. Famous opposition activist Ilya Yashin and anti-corruption lawyer Alexey Navalny are among the 300 detained.
Implications
The spontaneous street protests organised through Internet site Facebook are an unprecedented and alarming development for President Dmitry Medvedev and Putin. The government has brought in internal law enforcement troops to prevent any large-scale anti-government protest.
Outlook
The protests follow a feeble victory for ER in the parliamentary election, losing its constitutional majority and hemorrhaging votes to Communists and nationalists. Both the liberal and Communist opposition are disputing the elections results as unfair and illegitimate.
To prevent escalation of the situation, the government is likely to make maximum use of the law enforcement; international concerns over the quality of vote are likely to be dismissed, but rising social discontent is likely to push Putin to revisit his policy for the presidential election next year.
Arab Spring in December?
Shortly after Russia’s Central Elections Commission (CEC) announced that the ruling United Russia (ER) had secured 49.3% of the total vote and 238 out of 450 seats in the parliament, spontaneous street protests broke out in the capital Moscow and the north-western second largest city of St Petersburg, often considered as the intellectual capital of Russia.
Around 10,000 people chanting "Russia without Putin" and "Putin should be in prison" marched in central Moscow after co-ordinating their actions through social network site Facebook.
The demonstrators included members of the marginalised liberal opposition as well as those who do not necessarily support the liberals, but are united with them in their desire to see Prime Minister Vladimir Putin leave politics. The protest was against the victory of ER, which many demonstrators believe had no capacity to win even the simple majority declared by the CEC.
They accuse Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev of engineering the vote. The mass protest, the likes of which has not been seen since the early 1990s at the breakup of the Soviet Union, was also to protest Putin’s plans to return to the presidential seat in March 2012.
This decision was revealed at the end of September at the ER party Congress, which also saw the effective demise of Medvedev, who was often seen as the favourite of moderate reformists in and out of the Russian government, secretly hoping that he would challenge Putin in March.
The outburst of anger in Moscow and St Petersburg is borne out of frustration at Russia slowly sliding into a period of political stagnation reminiscent of the 1970s Soviet era under Communist leader Leonid Brezhnev.
What is more frustrating that this state of political stagnation, de facto one-party rule and inevitable rise in corruption and bureaucratic red tape could continue for another decade. Given that Putin has a strong grip on power and has no serious challengers in the presidential race on 4 March, he is set to return to the top of the Kremlin and remain there for two consecutive terms.
This means that Putin, who first became president in 2000, will be the longest standing leader in modern Russian history, potentially running the country for 24 years. The prospect of having a Soviet-style leader ruling for two decades does not bode well, especially with Russia’s growing professional middle class.
It is no coincidence that Moscow and St Petersburg have become the centres of spontaneous outburst of popular discontent with Putin and ER which is effectively a replica of the Communist party during the Soviet era, having as it members mostly Russian state officials driven by career ambitions rather than a vision for Russia.
The Russian authorities were expecting and prepared for street protests, although perhaps not of the size seen yesterday. Given that the protests are more multi-layered and not limited to the traditionally marginalised opposition, the government is taking no chances by moving in internal troops.
There are already reports that the next wave of protests is planned for tonight but chances of it happening is less likely, given the strong presence of law enforcement. Moscow authorities confirmed that ER supporters will also hold a demonstration tonight, an apparent move by the government to ensure that public space is not just occupied by police and internal troops but also their civilian supporters.
Yesterday (5 December) 300 protestors were arrested, including opposition activist Ilya Yashin and anti-corruption lawyer Alexey Navalny. The latter’s lawyer has confirmed to the editorially independent Echo Moskvy radio station that they are treating his case as a kidnapping, since Navalny’s whereabouts remain unknown. The same radio confirmed that a Moscow court has already convicted Yashin for 15 days for organising a march to Lubyanka Square which hosts the KGB headquarters.
Although 50 of the detainees have been released today, 250 are still under arrest and are likely to face 15 days of imprisonment for taking part in an unsanctioned protest. The Russian authorities are hoping that in two weeks time and with the coming of the holiday season the political dust will settle.
Disputed election
Both international observers and the opposition have ruled that the election on 4 December was far from being transparent. The international monitoring mission by the European Council’s election watchdog, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) together with the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA), and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) had fielded 330 observers from 39 countries across Russia in November.
Their joint verdict said that the vote was in general "well organised" but there were severe problems with the counting process. One of the OSCE mission leaders, Petros Efthymiou, said, "the contest was slanted in favour of the ruling party", while his colleague, Heidi Tagliavini, said that she had an impression that the "election was like a game in which only some players are allowed to compete." The OSCE report was followed by a statement from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who expressed "serious concerns" about the conduct of the election.
Despite reported sustained harassment by the authorities, independent and Western–funded monitoring group Golos (Voice), whose deputy was detained on the election day in Moscow airport and its offices raided, has reported 5,300 alleged violations.
The strongest condemnation came from the Communists, who performed well and boosted their position to 92 seats in the Duma. The Communists said that they are planning to challenge the results in court as they are "absolutely illegitimate".
The Russian authorities were quick to hail the election as a success and the decline in ER’s seats as a true sign of democracy which will ensure political stability. They were also quick to dismiss the US administration’s response, advising the country to concentrate on its own election.
Worrying redistribution of votes
The redistribution of votes and increased influence of the Communists and nationalist LDPR is concerning in itself. This is not the constructive opposition that many young professional voters would hope for.
Many of them argue that because of the government’s efforts the real opposition was sidelined and could not get to Duma, although that is not the only problem with liberal parties. The Communists and LDPR have gained more influence by continuously slamming spreading corruption in the state apparatus that has effectively identified itself with ER.
The ruling party has famously been called a "party of thieves and crooks", a nickname first coined by prominent anti-corruption activist Alexey Navalny, and then readily picked up by ER’s opposition.
The Communists and LDPR have promised to fight in earnest against corruption and the oligarchs. Many former ER supporters have become disappointed with Putin for his failure to reduce corruption, improve bureaucracy and ensure fair distribution of wealth.
One of the most common arguments against Putin used by his opposition has been the claim that he has replaced one set of oligarchs with another, rather than liberating the country from them.
Aside from the fight against corrupt officials, the Communists see the nationalisation of all energy companies and strategic assets as a panacea for a fairer society. Meanwhile, the LDPR seems to have capitalised on the nationalist vote by running under the "Russia for Russians" banner.
Given that xenophobic sentiment is generally high in Russia, this became an attractive platform, especially for many right-wing nationalists who initially saw Putin as their patron. They were subsequently disillusioned with Putin’s and ER’s lack of interest in stopping illegal migration and increasing financial spending in the volatile and mainly Muslim North Caucasus.
Outlook and implications
It is hard to see if the latest protests have the potential to escalate to an Arab Spring-style revolution in Russia. Despite serious discontent with the government, the people’s voice largely remains fragmented.
The liberal opposition seems to be an unlikely leader of such a movement; having been marginalised from public space for so long they appear to have lost touch with common Russians. Apart from in large cities where they have their biggest following, liberals do not enjoy the trust of ordinary Russians.
This is because their pro-Western liberal viewpoint is often associated with the chaotic and painful times of the 1990s when the liberals had a strong influence but all most of the people felt was the wealth polarisation as a result of haphazard privatisation. Notably, Yabloko, a small liberal party vying for Duma seats did not get even the 4-5% of votes to gain at least one seat in the 450-mandate Duma.
That said—as the experience of the Arab Spring revolutions proves—new leaders could come forward. In this respect, Navalny is emerging as a promising figure. He already calls himself a nationalist politician who is against corruption and illegal immigration, which places him in the centre ground of the Russian political scene.
The Russian authorities realise that they can suppress discontent with the use of force, but this is not a sustainable path. Even if the protests fail to materialise in the coming days they have already alarmed Putin and his advisers.
His top political adviser Vladislav Surkov has already told Russian media that there will be a reckoning and reassessment as the current system that was working in 2001 is proving unable to work in 2011. As we also suggested earlier, Putin is already distancing himself from ER.
He has called on his party to address the accusations that they are a party of "thieves and crooks", adding that they are being blamed in being corrupt, a vice that according to Putin is characteristic to state apparatus and not political party unless they are intertwined. Meanwhile Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Putin was an independent politician and not an ER member, adding that it is Medvedev who leads the party.
These comments could serve as a precursor for what awaits Medvedev once he becomes prime minister in 2012; it is very likely that he may take the blame for failing fight against corruption and other economic shortcomings and thus have only a short stint in office.
Against the backdrop of the Arab Spring revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East, the popular uprisings in Kyrgyzstan and continuing political crisis in the tiny breakaway Georgian republic of South Ossetia, Putin has cause for concern.
Distancing himself from ER is not going to be much help unless he comes up with a much more appealing reform plan to ensure fairer distribution of wealth and a more effective fight against corruption.
Given the composition of the new parliament, Putin is likely to try and win back the Communist and LDPR votes by pledging more social justice, fair distribution of wealth and tougher stance on illegal immigration.
Since corruption has dominated the election debate, the Russian-president-to-be is likely to launch an anti-corruption drive, involving a series of high-profile corruption cases against state officials in an effort to prove his commitment to bringing order to the country.
However there will be little pressure at least from the new parliamentary opposition to undertake liberal reforms in the economy, on the contrary liberal economic reforms may prove even more difficult now with Communists and LDPR having a louder voice.
It may well be that Russia’s strongman, who has proven to be a deft politician, may have to reinvent himself with the help of a new team but he has little time left to do this.
IHS Global Insight Russia and CIS political analyst Lilit Gevorgyan can be reached on +44 20 3159 3394 or at [email protected].
