Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin is to serve a third term as president after securing a decisive first-round victory, but Russia is undergoing a political awakening and is ready to demand more of him than before.
Significance
With nearly 90% of the votes counted in Russia’s presidential election, current prime minister Vladimir Putin has received 64% of the total, but the victory is tainted by the opposition’s decision to dispute the election yesterday (4 March) as fraudulent and thus invalid. Mass protests both in support of Putin and against his election are due to take place later.
Implications
Putin’s return as president means that the status quo continues. If the opposition loses momentum then very little change can be expected; however, Putin is facing a new reality and fresh challenges to a successful completion of his six-year term.
Outlook
The election results proved that even with weakened support Putin remains firmly at the helm of the Russian state. However, he is returning to a divided Russia where the former apolitical attitude of the electorate is giving away to a more vibrant political life. Continued support for Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, who came second in the race, signals the strength of the left vote. This will shape the agenda of the opposition and Putin’s new government alike in the coming months.
Passed the Test?
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev did not wait until Russia’s Central Elections Commission (CEC) released the final outcome of the presidential vote held yesterday (4 March). Shortly after the preliminary results gave him a 57% lead in the race, Manezh Square near the Kremlin in the Russian capital, Moscow, was already filling with thousands of Putin supporters.
Putin gave an emotional and yet stern address to his supporters. He claimed that the election was free and fair, saying: "We have won in an open and honest battle." He also said the vote was an important test for the Russian people and one that they have passed as they understand what real change and modernisation is, and have not succumbed to outside influences and efforts to destroy Russia.
Putin ended his speech by saying that he promised victory, and delivered and concluded his brief appearance by stating: “We won. Glory to Russia!”
Putin, who served two terms as president between 2000 and 2008, is returning for an extended six-year presidential term. His handpicked successor and now outgoing president Dmitry Medvedev initiated a change in the Russian constitution that extended the presidential term from four to six years. Technically Putin can bid for another term and stay in power until 2024.
Putin’s return with a decisive first-round victory was confirmed by the head of CEC Vladimir Churov, who stated that with 99.3% of votes counted Putin had received 63.75% of the total votes, which is lower than the 71% that he received when he was running for his second term in March 2004.
Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of Russia’s oldest political Communist Party (KPRF), came second with 17.9%, followed by newcomer and independent candidate billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who gained 7.82%, despite spending only 45 days on his pre-election campaign. This was higher than the 6.23% that the veteran politician nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) won despite his populist election campaign. The leader of social democratic Just Russia, Sergei Mironov, received only 3.85%, reflecting a general electoral mistrust towards Mironov and his party, largely deemed as a quasi-opposition party created by Putin.
The overall voter turnout was also low; at 65.3% it was less than the 70% seen in the 2008 election, although it was higher than the turnout in the 4 December 2011 parliamentary vote. The voting pattern also revealed differences between Moscow and Russia’s second largest city of Saint Petersburg in the west, compared to that in the regions.
Prokhorov came second in Moscow by gaining 20.21% of the vote, while Putin did not get more than 50% in the all-important capital. As before, Chechnya delivered near 100% voter turnout and pro-Putin vote, which the opposition claims to be a prime example of flagrant violation of the election rules.
Quality of the Vote
For the next few days the quality of the Russian vote will remain at the centre of attention. Following the mass protests contesting the victory of the ruling United Russia (ER) party in the December legislative vote that served as a trigger, but not necessarily a cause, for the rise of the anti-Putin opposition, the Russian leader pledged to hold a transparent election on 4 March. Nearly one million international and domestic election observers took part, while the government spent more than USD300 million on installing cameras in polling stations. These efforts were to show that Putin’s predictable victory could not be undermined by claims of fraud.
To some extent these were the most transparent elections in the past decade in Russia. Not surprisingly, Putin hailed the quality of the vote at as “honest and fair”; an opinion that was quickly discarded by the Communist leader Zyuganov who stated at the press conference following the closure of the last voting station that the elections were neither fair nor transparent.
Soon the other opposition supporters also joined in alleging “carousel” voting, when the same individuals are ferried in buses between different polling stations to vote multiple times. However, most importantly, Communist and other opposition members maintain that there were not only violations in the election day count, but also in the run-up to the vote. They claim that television media gave 75% of its airtime to Putin and his supporters, while the remaining 25% had to be shared between the other candidates.
The opposition resorted to the internet as its main outlet, but this was an effective tool only in the major urban areas, while access to the regions was constrained. Zyuganov stated that Putin refused to engage in political debate by shunning any public discussion with the opposition. Meanwhile, the liberal opposition is frustrated that not a signal representative of traditional liberal parties was allowed to run in the election.
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has yet to finalise its report on the quality of the Russian vote. The Western capitals are likely to wait until these reports are made public before commenting. However, China’s president Hu Jintao was quick to congratulate Putin on his election, sending a message in the early hours of 5 March. In his message the Chinese leader said: "China respects the choice of the Russian people…We believe that Russia will maintain social and political stability and economic development and play a bigger role in international affairs."
Outlook and Implications
Putin’s return to the presidency was a foregone conclusion for him and many Russian voters, as well as for international observers. However, what he did not predict was that he would return to a changing Russia. Part of this change was triggered by Putin himself.
Since coming to power in 2000 Russia has seen economic growth, with GDP per capita expanding from USD6,500 in 2000 to USD15,500 in 2011. Putin has brought political stability and improvement in living standards that has underpinned his popularity but also created a middle class, an important social and economic change in Russia. However, he also generated another change when in September 2011 he opted for a position swap with Medvedev, angering voters, including the middle class, which wants a say in the governing of the country.
However, the role of the middle class should not be exaggerated either as even in its aspirations and goals it remains elusive. After all, there are many, especially those in the lower middle-income bracket, who achieved that status thanks to Putin’s economic policies and do not wish to threaten what they have achieved by embracing an unknown change.
What Moscow’s middle class is aiming for could differ from those in the regions. Putin’s return was assured because the ballot paper did not offer much choice. Compared to the Communists and LDPR, Putin appeared to be the most liberal candidate. This is of course excluding 45-year-old Prokhorov, who is just entering the political scene for a long-term plan and appears in no hurry unlike all other candidates, including Putin.
Despite the opposition protests, the anti-Putin movement has not produced a clear set of leaders. The newly emerged opposition leaders perhaps have been caught off guard by their own success in galvanising an electorate that had been apolitical for over a decade. They have still to come up with economic development and political reform plans that would convince cautious Russian voters to back them.
Putin is facing a difficult third term. Here the opposition and the Russian public has an important role to play. Should the anti-Putin forces maintain the momentum by channelling their efforts into the creation of new political parties and civil society groups, this will force Putin to embrace more than the cosmetic changes that he is willing to allow.
Equally, the global economic conditions could act as a catalyst for change in Russia. If Putin cannot win back the middle classes in Moscow and St Petersburg he could try to rein in those who vote for Communists, hence his plans for large-scale social spending.
However, to be able to pay for the multi-billion-dollar spending plans Russia needs a healthy world economy with growing oil prices, something that might prove problematic in the near future.Russia is entering a new decade of change that is likely to be too slow for an impatient and newly emerging opposition, and too fast for those who had a comfortable life in the past decade.
The opposition has a paramount role to play to insure that this change happens, while Putin has the choice of blocking the change or embracing it.
